Monday, August 30, 2004
This may be a blessing in disguise for Nader, who would have otherwise faced the blow of yet another batch of his petitions being ruled invalid. Random samples of his Pennsylvania petitions have yielded an exceptionally high rate of invalid signatures.
This isn't the Democratic side of the story. His own lawyer acknowledged that 75% of a 1371 signature sample are liable to be tossed.
On the whole it might sound a little better for Nader to be tossed off the PA ballot due to confusion about his party status instead of the usual problems with signatures. Still, this is another boost to Kerry and a blow to a certain aging fraud.
This isn't the Democratic side of the story. His own lawyer acknowledged that 75% of a 1371 signature sample are liable to be tossed.
On the whole it might sound a little better for Nader to be tossed off the PA ballot due to confusion about his party status instead of the usual problems with signatures. Still, this is another boost to Kerry and a blow to a certain aging fraud.
Ralph Nader sustained another setback in Pennsylvania: a panel of state judges has ruled that he can't be listed as an independent candidate in PA after accepting the nomination of the Reform Party.
Whoops. This won't make the homeless population of Philly any happier!
Whoops. This won't make the homeless population of Philly any happier!
Sunday, August 29, 2004
The Australian election will be a decisive moment in gauging the future of America's core alliances. Just as the defeat of the Spanish conservatives augured a new shift away from the U.S. in European politics, a defeat of the pro-American John Howard would have serious consequences along the Pacific Rim.
I don't know that the Labor Party would forswear any collaboration with the United States, if elected, but it would certainly be far more conditional in its support of us. Australia is one of our best friends in the world, having a far longer history of close collaboration with the United States than Spain. A wavering government in Canberra would augur future desertions, perhaps even in that bastion of special relationships: the United Kingdom.
Stay tuned.
I don't know that the Labor Party would forswear any collaboration with the United States, if elected, but it would certainly be far more conditional in its support of us. Australia is one of our best friends in the world, having a far longer history of close collaboration with the United States than Spain. A wavering government in Canberra would augur future desertions, perhaps even in that bastion of special relationships: the United Kingdom.
Stay tuned.
A Washington Post article profiles Nader's new friends. For once, I'm not talking about the Republicans, but the Reform Party. Of the Reform Party's chairman, the Post writes:
Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese is a bit blasé about all this,
As bad as defending the Klan? McAuliffe should pursue legal action.
There's also this little priceless observation:
Amazing - Ralph Nader is seemingly the only politician that can receive support from others and not have it rub off on him. Contrast this to the "corporate support of Kerry entails he's a puppet" line that Naderites spout. It must be nice to make so many exceptions for oneself.
There is an unfortunate truth not really mentioned here: Nader's affiliation with the Reform Party is made possible by his historic friendly ties with Pat Buchanan. Whereas most liberals find Buchanan a toxic, contemptible bigot, Nader has a genuine rapport with the man. A strange and inconvenient fact about a man pretending to be at the vanguard of a new progressive era.
- A wealthy perennial candidate, O'Hara has run unsuccessfully for various offices as a Democrat, Republican, Reform Party member and Independent. He once ran for governor against his father. During a 2002 campaign, O'Hara argued for the dissolution of the FBI, the CIA and the U.S. Department of Education to the Hattiesburg American newspaper. He also assisted with the legal defense of Sam Bowers, a former Ku Klux Klan leader convicted in 1998 of ordering the murder a civil rights worker in the 1960s
Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese is a bit blasé about all this,
- Zeese decline to comment on O'Hara, except to say: "Look at [Democratic National Committee Chairman] Terry McAuliffe and his corporate ties. I am sure he has more skeletons."
As bad as defending the Klan? McAuliffe should pursue legal action.
There's also this little priceless observation:
- Zeese acknowledges disagreements [with the Reform Party] on some topics, such as immigration and health care. "But remember, they're endorsing us." he said. "We're not endorsing them."
Amazing - Ralph Nader is seemingly the only politician that can receive support from others and not have it rub off on him. Contrast this to the "corporate support of Kerry entails he's a puppet" line that Naderites spout. It must be nice to make so many exceptions for oneself.
There is an unfortunate truth not really mentioned here: Nader's affiliation with the Reform Party is made possible by his historic friendly ties with Pat Buchanan. Whereas most liberals find Buchanan a toxic, contemptible bigot, Nader has a genuine rapport with the man. A strange and inconvenient fact about a man pretending to be at the vanguard of a new progressive era.
A sensible New York Times editorial calls for the abolition of the electoral college. It makes sense to do this for a dozen compelling reasons. Still, the political balance between big and small states being what it is, one has to come to the grim conclusion that this is unlikely to occur, or that we'd need yet another train wreck of an election to build a consensus for this.
Saturday, August 28, 2004
The developing controversy over the claims of the anti-Kerry Swift Boat veterans has the potential to shape this election. Already, it has dragged Kerry off-message. Also, it has narrowed his lead in general, and especially in swing states. Sites tracking the electoral map find him barely up; Electoral-vote.com has him getting exactly 270 votes as of yesterday.
On the plus side of things, half of Americans do see this as being conducted by the Bush campaign. In the same poll, the number of people believing that Kerry did not earn his medals dropped from 30% to 24%. One would have to figure out which 24%, but given the sizable share of American conservatives who convinced themselves that Bill Clinton routinely murdered political opponents, one has to figure that there's a statistical floor.
Was Kerry caught off guard by this? I don't think so. He may have timed his counterattack poorly, but citing Bush's treatment of McCain in 2000 was a masterstroke. What is needed now is to capitalize on the refutation of the SBVT group by the media, which is largely on Kerry's side on this issue. He should devote a week or two to underlining the links between the Bush campaign and SBVT. But he'll need to get back on message as well, perhaps concurrently running campaign ads.
Bush has played his hand well by calling for an end to 527 group advertising and pretending to seize the high ground by praising Kerry's war record. He may have done this sort of thing too many times before to have it come off, but attacking 527 groups may play well with centrist voters who aren't fond of the MoveOn genre of ads either. One would hate for Bush to profit from such an unscrupulous attack strategy but he seems to be doing so right now. The state polls are much narrower now than they were three weeks ago. A strong convention could put Bush over, even as US fatalities in Iraq move inexorably into 4 digits.
This is still the middle of the campaign season. The debates will mark the beginning of the end and Bush has handed Kerry a great opportunity to attack him. Mano a mano, Kerry can quickly puncture Bush's weak defenses on the ads, just as Clinton memorably shot Poppy Bush down in 1992 on the charge that his 1969 visit to Russia was somehow questionable. At this point, he'll have to raise it. This thing isn't nearly played out until he does.
On the plus side of things, half of Americans do see this as being conducted by the Bush campaign. In the same poll, the number of people believing that Kerry did not earn his medals dropped from 30% to 24%. One would have to figure out which 24%, but given the sizable share of American conservatives who convinced themselves that Bill Clinton routinely murdered political opponents, one has to figure that there's a statistical floor.
Was Kerry caught off guard by this? I don't think so. He may have timed his counterattack poorly, but citing Bush's treatment of McCain in 2000 was a masterstroke. What is needed now is to capitalize on the refutation of the SBVT group by the media, which is largely on Kerry's side on this issue. He should devote a week or two to underlining the links between the Bush campaign and SBVT. But he'll need to get back on message as well, perhaps concurrently running campaign ads.
Bush has played his hand well by calling for an end to 527 group advertising and pretending to seize the high ground by praising Kerry's war record. He may have done this sort of thing too many times before to have it come off, but attacking 527 groups may play well with centrist voters who aren't fond of the MoveOn genre of ads either. One would hate for Bush to profit from such an unscrupulous attack strategy but he seems to be doing so right now. The state polls are much narrower now than they were three weeks ago. A strong convention could put Bush over, even as US fatalities in Iraq move inexorably into 4 digits.
This is still the middle of the campaign season. The debates will mark the beginning of the end and Bush has handed Kerry a great opportunity to attack him. Mano a mano, Kerry can quickly puncture Bush's weak defenses on the ads, just as Clinton memorably shot Poppy Bush down in 1992 on the charge that his 1969 visit to Russia was somehow questionable. At this point, he'll have to raise it. This thing isn't nearly played out until he does.
Saturday, August 21, 2004
To my regret, I missed an important Washington Post editorial, Mr. Nader's Baiting, concerning some strikingly nasty remarks he's made about the US Congress being "puppets" of Israel. It would seem that Nader's been spending a little too much time with his new Buchananite supporters. The Post editorial tellingly juxtaposes Nader's own remarks against some from the neo-Nazi National Alliance website.
Nader's response today, which states "When Israelis joke about the United States being "the second state of Israel," it sounds like they are describing a puppeteer-puppet relationship." doesn't help things any for him. The joke is what you read into it. Israelis do find American enthusiasm for Israel rather anomalous amidst a world that seems to otherwise scorn them, but that hardly comes to an assertion of control. Only in the mind of those predisposed to read things that way, can the joke even come anywhere close to that. Only someone who cannot fathom that people like John Kerry can and do support Israel out of belief and principle would make such absurd statements.
Nader's response, oddly, musters little more than cursory outrage over the juxtaposition of quotes. Most people would be more irate about being cited next to white supremacists, but Nader seems to glide onward from an initial assertion. Why is this not more vexing to him?
It bears mentioning that, near the end of the 2000 cycle, it came out that Nader had written for the venomously racist rag American Mercury back in the 1960s. This kind of toxic rhetoric may not be at all new to him. And the company he keeps may be more unsavory than liberal supporters know.
Finally, it takes a real kind of arrogance to call anyone else a puppet when you're taking money under the table from the Bush machine. The kind that we expect from Saint Ralph.
Nader's response today, which states "When Israelis joke about the United States being "the second state of Israel," it sounds like they are describing a puppeteer-puppet relationship." doesn't help things any for him. The joke is what you read into it. Israelis do find American enthusiasm for Israel rather anomalous amidst a world that seems to otherwise scorn them, but that hardly comes to an assertion of control. Only in the mind of those predisposed to read things that way, can the joke even come anywhere close to that. Only someone who cannot fathom that people like John Kerry can and do support Israel out of belief and principle would make such absurd statements.
Nader's response, oddly, musters little more than cursory outrage over the juxtaposition of quotes. Most people would be more irate about being cited next to white supremacists, but Nader seems to glide onward from an initial assertion. Why is this not more vexing to him?
It bears mentioning that, near the end of the 2000 cycle, it came out that Nader had written for the venomously racist rag American Mercury back in the 1960s. This kind of toxic rhetoric may not be at all new to him. And the company he keeps may be more unsavory than liberal supporters know.
Finally, it takes a real kind of arrogance to call anyone else a puppet when you're taking money under the table from the Bush machine. The kind that we expect from Saint Ralph.
Friday, August 20, 2004
Another staggering blow to Saint Ralph's aspirations of attaining relevance occurred this week when four states denied him ballot access: Illinois, Maryland, Missouri and Virginia.
Illinois and Maryland are very safe states, so this won't affect the election. But the latter two are really good news. Virginia is close - maybe not a fully qualified swing state, but one that Bush needs to watch closely. Without Nader draining away support, Kerry might come closer to tying the state and forcing Dubya to divert resources there. Missouri is, of course, one of the Big Three. Nader's absence from the ballot there is marvellous news. Marvellous!
There's the predictable round of Naderite whining about this:
Illinois and Maryland are very safe states, so this won't affect the election. But the latter two are really good news. Virginia is close - maybe not a fully qualified swing state, but one that Bush needs to watch closely. Without Nader draining away support, Kerry might come closer to tying the state and forcing Dubya to divert resources there. Missouri is, of course, one of the Big Three. Nader's absence from the ballot there is marvellous news. Marvellous!
There's the predictable round of Naderite whining about this:
- Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese said the candidate is contesting the decisions in all four states. He condemned "this really bizarre system in the United States where we have 50 different ballot access laws. They're really laws to keep people off the ballot and keep it a two-party system."
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Doh, Not Again!
In Oregon, the validity of Nader's petitions has been sharply questioned by the Service Employees International Union.
In Oregon, the validity of Nader's petitions has been sharply questioned by the Service Employees International Union.
- The public employees union, meanwhile, said it tried to contact 269 people whose names were on Nader's petitions.
The union said that based on those contacts, it found that 27 percent of the addresses do not exist, 22 percent of the names belonged to people who are dead or do not live at the address, and 17 percent reported they did not sign the petition.
Acting on the complaints about alleged forgeries, the Oregon Elections Division yesterday opened a formal investigation into the conduct of the Nader petition drive.
Monday, August 16, 2004
Drafting Jon Corzine to run for Governor in New Jersey is a terrible idea. The fact that New Jersey's Democratic Party is so set on the idea is an illustration of just how little they see beyond the boundaries of their state.
Corzine is engaged in a vitally important effort to take back the Senate for the Democratic Party. Removing him from this fight, at such a crucial moment will impact and and will probably help to disrupt it. Corzine has done monumental work in finding good candidates and it's vital that he see the job through. New Jersey is an increasingly Democratic state; it's not at all apparent that McGreevey's mansion would go Republican if Corzine passed it up.
If Corzine chooses to run, there is the risk that his Senate seat will go Republican. It will also be discouraging to Democrats seeking to take back the Senate. Not to disparage the Garden State, but the stakes here are a lot higher than who gets to run New Jersey for a few years.
Corzine is engaged in a vitally important effort to take back the Senate for the Democratic Party. Removing him from this fight, at such a crucial moment will impact and and will probably help to disrupt it. Corzine has done monumental work in finding good candidates and it's vital that he see the job through. New Jersey is an increasingly Democratic state; it's not at all apparent that McGreevey's mansion would go Republican if Corzine passed it up.
If Corzine chooses to run, there is the risk that his Senate seat will go Republican. It will also be discouraging to Democrats seeking to take back the Senate. Not to disparage the Garden State, but the stakes here are a lot higher than who gets to run New Jersey for a few years.
Should we find it odd that George W. Bush's father isn't scheduled to speak at the 2004 RNC?
Sunday, August 15, 2004
Bizarre news from South Dakota: John Thune's campaign manager has called Tom Daschle a "chickenshit." He denounced Daschle thusly to a Daschle employee who was videotaping a Thune event. This event may sink into obscurity, or it could reverberate and characterize the race.
Friday, August 13, 2004
Two interesting lawsuits in Pennsylvania: the ongoing case alleging massive petition fraud by Nader signature collectors and a new one:
The first case could hurt Nader, the second could help to destroy him.
On the merits of the first case, here is an attorney for the plaintiff:
One hopes he's right.
- a Philadelphia attorney filed a potential class action lawsuit on behalf of workers hired by the Nader campaign to circulate the petitions and who claim they weren't paid what they were promised.
The first case could hurt Nader, the second could help to destroy him.
On the merits of the first case, here is an attorney for the plaintiff:
- "We know as a matter of provable fact that our [30,000] challenges on a basis of voter registration are right," said Efrem Grail, a white-collar criminal defense attorney at Reed Smith in Pittsburgh who is representing the non-Philadelphia voters in the objection with Daniel I. Booker and Cynthia E. Kernick, also of Reed Smith's Pittsburgh office. "The only ones we're going to be wrong on is when we made a typographical error in putting it into our database, or when we misread handwriting."
One hopes he's right.
Thursday, August 12, 2004
A recurring issue in South Dakota politics is raising its head: drought relief. A drought is currently occuring in 30 of South Dakota's 66 counties. Thus far, no clear partisan division has emerged on the issue and federal efforts at relief, but don't be surprised if either candidate makes an effort to capitalize. John Thune may have suffered in his last run in 2002 from the Bush administration's inattention to the issue.
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
A rather scathing piece denounces the Illinois GOP for drafting Alan Keyes to run for the Senate. What's notable is that this one was written in The Weekly Standard. Anyone who thinks conservatives can't be funny should consider the below line, and read the entire article.
- I'm certain Ambassador Keyes is now busily at work printing up some 'Crazy Times Demand a Crazy Senator' yard signs and oiling his trusty chains for a repeat performance in Chicago this fall. Whatever element of the Illinois GOP that came up with this plan will regret the day they thought it up.
The Democratic challenge against Nader's Pennsylvania ballot petitions is underway.
These are attorneys for the plaintiffs, so they're naturally going to be amping up their case. Still, Nader conceded in Arizona because he claimed not to have resources for a court case. Will he have those in Pennsylvania?
- Pittsburgh lawyer Efrem M. Grail, who challenged Nader's petitions on behalf of seven western Pennsylvania voters, said in his filing that more than 30,000 signatures were invalid because the signers were not registered voters -- more than enough to prevent Nader from competing against President Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerry for Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes.
Gregory M. Harvey, a Philadelphia lawyer who conducted a tandem review on behalf of a Philadelphia voter, said he found 'a wide-ranging and extensive pattern of false and forged entries, entries obtained through deception of signers and whole pages of outright forged signatures.
These are attorneys for the plaintiffs, so they're naturally going to be amping up their case. Still, Nader conceded in Arizona because he claimed not to have resources for a court case. Will he have those in Pennsylvania?
Sunday, August 08, 2004
More from Kal-ee-fonia / A Nation of Nader Haters
Yahoo! News - Nader Fails to Make California Ballot:
Nader's California coordinator remarks:
Also, this spokesperson and a Green Party representative both acknowledge that Nader is unlikely to hijack the Green Party's nomination in CA.
If Nader petition-gatherers are quitting because of abuse, this sheds new light on the decision of Pennsylvania Naderites to employ homeless people, who might have somewhat thicker skins than regular petitioners.
The hostile responses received help illuminate one recent poll finding. One hot new statistic this year involves determining the favorable ratio: subtracting disapproval ratings from approval ratings. Bush is commonly seen as being in trouble because the sum total of his positive and negative ratings is negative. In 2 recent ARG surveys, he had -4% in New Hampshire and in Florida he's at -2%. Kerry, on the other hand is at and +8% +13%, which bodes well for him.
How does Ralph Nader do? In Florida, his favorable ratio is -60%, with 73% of the voters disapproving of him. In New Hampshire, he's at -66%, with 76% of the voters disapproving. Just in case these seem fluky, here are his respective sums for Iowa, West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan: -68%, -68%, -42% (his best showing) and -84%. Clearly, he's the most hated man on the campaign trail this year, surpassing even Dubya.
Yahoo! News - Nader Fails to Make California Ballot:
Nader's California coordinator remarks:
It was very difficult collecting these signatures, as you can imagine. We tried to get some help, but the paid signature gatherers did not work for more than a week or two. They all quit. They said it was too abusive, the attacks that went on [from people opposed to Nader's candidacy]
Also, this spokesperson and a Green Party representative both acknowledge that Nader is unlikely to hijack the Green Party's nomination in CA.
If Nader petition-gatherers are quitting because of abuse, this sheds new light on the decision of Pennsylvania Naderites to employ homeless people, who might have somewhat thicker skins than regular petitioners.
The hostile responses received help illuminate one recent poll finding. One hot new statistic this year involves determining the favorable ratio: subtracting disapproval ratings from approval ratings. Bush is commonly seen as being in trouble because the sum total of his positive and negative ratings is negative. In 2 recent ARG surveys, he had -4% in New Hampshire and in Florida he's at -2%. Kerry, on the other hand is at and +8% +13%, which bodes well for him.
How does Ralph Nader do? In Florida, his favorable ratio is -60%, with 73% of the voters disapproving of him. In New Hampshire, he's at -66%, with 76% of the voters disapproving. Just in case these seem fluky, here are his respective sums for Iowa, West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan: -68%, -68%, -42% (his best showing) and -84%. Clearly, he's the most hated man on the campaign trail this year, surpassing even Dubya.
Saturday, August 07, 2004
Ralph Nader: Exploiter of the Homeless
Bizarre but true: the Nader campaign was forced to close its Philadelphia office after it was besieged by homeless people. The picketers claimed that they had been promised money to collect signatures for Nader, but that they had not been paid.
Pennsylvania Democrats plan to challenge Nader's petitions on the grounds that some of the homeless petitioners were observed signing each other's petitions. Can you blame them? They were apparently promised $0.75-$1.00 per petition.
It scarcely needs saying that the average homeless person is likely to be less successful in petition-gathering than a well-fed and well-clothed volunteer. How desperate are the Nader people? Desperate enough to engage in shameless exploitation, it would seem.
See: Nader's Philly Office Closes
Bizarre but true: the Nader campaign was forced to close its Philadelphia office after it was besieged by homeless people. The picketers claimed that they had been promised money to collect signatures for Nader, but that they had not been paid.
Pennsylvania Democrats plan to challenge Nader's petitions on the grounds that some of the homeless petitioners were observed signing each other's petitions. Can you blame them? They were apparently promised $0.75-$1.00 per petition.
It scarcely needs saying that the average homeless person is likely to be less successful in petition-gathering than a well-fed and well-clothed volunteer. How desperate are the Nader people? Desperate enough to engage in shameless exploitation, it would seem.
See: Nader's Philly Office Closes
Bwahahaha: Nader Fails the Kal-ee-fonia Ballot Test
The San Francisco Chronicle reports the latest sorry chapter in Ralph Nader's quest for relevance: his campaign is on the verge of failing to place on the California ballot. CA requires 153,000 signatures and the Nader people turned in just under 83,000. Oops!
One might have thought that Nader in his prime might have gathered that many signatures from San Franciscans alone.
Now, in the campaign's latest gambit, they are attempting to get the California state Green Party to endorse Nader as its candidate. The fact that the national Green Party has already endorsed another candidate is apparently not an issue.
Nader's vice presidential candidate, Peter Camejo is alluding to the possibility of a Green endorsement. Still, I'd be surprised if that really happened. As California Green Medea Benjamin notes, Nader has nothing to offer the party. If he gets to the 5% that qualifies him for federal funding the next time out, the CA Greens won't see a cent.
There is a serious institutional hurdle in the way for Nader as well. 80% of attending Greens at a special convention would be required to change the nominee. Are there that many California Greens who are eager to open a rift with the national party?
The more likely event of Nader failing to make the ballot will be a serious blow to his candidacy. It will throw into question his viability, even as a splinter candidate.
The San Francisco Chronicle reports the latest sorry chapter in Ralph Nader's quest for relevance: his campaign is on the verge of failing to place on the California ballot. CA requires 153,000 signatures and the Nader people turned in just under 83,000. Oops!
One might have thought that Nader in his prime might have gathered that many signatures from San Franciscans alone.
Now, in the campaign's latest gambit, they are attempting to get the California state Green Party to endorse Nader as its candidate. The fact that the national Green Party has already endorsed another candidate is apparently not an issue.
Nader's vice presidential candidate, Peter Camejo is alluding to the possibility of a Green endorsement. Still, I'd be surprised if that really happened. As California Green Medea Benjamin notes, Nader has nothing to offer the party. If he gets to the 5% that qualifies him for federal funding the next time out, the CA Greens won't see a cent.
There is a serious institutional hurdle in the way for Nader as well. 80% of attending Greens at a special convention would be required to change the nominee. Are there that many California Greens who are eager to open a rift with the national party?
The more likely event of Nader failing to make the ballot will be a serious blow to his candidacy. It will throw into question his viability, even as a splinter candidate.
Friday, August 06, 2004
Let's hear it for John McCain. His timely criticism of vile anti-Kerry ads has nicely put the White House on the defensive, and highlighted their refusal to condemn the ads.
Whether the White House wanted to or not, it is now linked to ads questioning Kerry's Vietnam service. This is a poor position to be in - it provides an excellent set-up for Kerry to slam Bush during the debates.
John McCain has taken an informal refereeing position in this campaign. In part, this is because he was deeply wounded in 2000 by ads questioning his own Vietnam service - for which he called Bush to task during a debate. As James Fallows recounts in the June edition of The Atlantic, this was Bush's most damaging moment during campaign debates, worse than anything Gore said.
McCain is a Republican and if you ask him directly, he'd say he's supporting Bush. But he's carved out a peculiar niche in the center of this race, and so far he's done as much to help the Kerry campaign as hurt it. Under extreme circumstances, one can imagine the White House's failure to condemn the ads precipitating McCain breaking ties with them. John McCain will bear the scars of the 2000 primary to his grave; the White House is especially unwise to remind him of them anew.
Whether the White House wanted to or not, it is now linked to ads questioning Kerry's Vietnam service. This is a poor position to be in - it provides an excellent set-up for Kerry to slam Bush during the debates.
John McCain has taken an informal refereeing position in this campaign. In part, this is because he was deeply wounded in 2000 by ads questioning his own Vietnam service - for which he called Bush to task during a debate. As James Fallows recounts in the June edition of The Atlantic, this was Bush's most damaging moment during campaign debates, worse than anything Gore said.
McCain is a Republican and if you ask him directly, he'd say he's supporting Bush. But he's carved out a peculiar niche in the center of this race, and so far he's done as much to help the Kerry campaign as hurt it. Under extreme circumstances, one can imagine the White House's failure to condemn the ads precipitating McCain breaking ties with them. John McCain will bear the scars of the 2000 primary to his grave; the White House is especially unwise to remind him of them anew.
Thursday, August 05, 2004
Oh good gravy, Keyes is planning to run. First, he'll have to take back everything he said about Hillary. Secondly, he'd better get himself prepared for a first class ass-whooping. Illinois isn't favorable territory for Republicans as it is, never mind theological conservatives like Keyes.
The Illinois GOP has reportedly asked Alan Keyes to run for Senate. Unfortunately he lives in Maryland. The Land of Lincoln has pretty liberal residency requirements for Senate candidates, but this is fairly embarrassing for Keyes, who slammed Hillary Clinton's NY Senate run in 2000. At this point, the Illinois GOP should just give up. They shamed their only candidate out of the race because he wanted to be kinky with his legally married wife. At this point, they should live with the consequences.
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
Nightmare: 2004
The LA Times has a nice dynamic electoral map that lets the user play out electoral scenarios.
I've been going by the general rule of thumb that Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (plus NH, which is trending nicely) AND one of three chunky swing states: Missouri, Ohio or Florida.
But, since he's done well in a couple of small states Bush won the last time out, Nevada and West Virginia, I wondered to myself how he'd do if he took one of those and none of the Big Three.
This prompted a horrifying revelation. Were he to snag New Hampshire and either Nevada or West Virginia, Kerry would tie with Bush at 269 electoral votes apiece. At which point, an obscure constitutional provision swings into effect. The election goes to the House, which then votes by state delegation. Since the Republicans control 30 of the 50 state delegations, the outcome would be a certain victory for Dubya. Just as in 2000, the popular vote would go out the window and if current trends hold, the vote would be Kerry's.
This is a nightmare independent of anything that happens in Florida's balloting process (though it does entail Dubya carrying the state). Think of it - another election determined through a strange and obscure set of indirect processes. One may object that the House is democratically elected, but the reversion to state delegation balloting weighs Wyoming's delegation the same as California's. This provision is a throwback to the earliest days of the Republic. It was crafted for a different time. In this era, it would produce an outcome guaranteed to outrage much of the population and greatly diminish popular trust in constitutional mechanisms. A clear Bush victory would be a lesser evil.
Naturally, this is an unlikely and maybe even far-fetched scenario. In daily amalgamations of state polling, Kerry has managed to stay well above 270. He has 4 viable routes to the White House: carrying one of the Big Three OR carrying Nevada and West Virginia together. Given Bush's high disapproval ratings, and the relatively high amount of economic dissatisfaction in swing states, those are still good odds. I hope.
The LA Times has a nice dynamic electoral map that lets the user play out electoral scenarios.
I've been going by the general rule of thumb that Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (plus NH, which is trending nicely) AND one of three chunky swing states: Missouri, Ohio or Florida.
But, since he's done well in a couple of small states Bush won the last time out, Nevada and West Virginia, I wondered to myself how he'd do if he took one of those and none of the Big Three.
This prompted a horrifying revelation. Were he to snag New Hampshire and either Nevada or West Virginia, Kerry would tie with Bush at 269 electoral votes apiece. At which point, an obscure constitutional provision swings into effect. The election goes to the House, which then votes by state delegation. Since the Republicans control 30 of the 50 state delegations, the outcome would be a certain victory for Dubya. Just as in 2000, the popular vote would go out the window and if current trends hold, the vote would be Kerry's.
This is a nightmare independent of anything that happens in Florida's balloting process (though it does entail Dubya carrying the state). Think of it - another election determined through a strange and obscure set of indirect processes. One may object that the House is democratically elected, but the reversion to state delegation balloting weighs Wyoming's delegation the same as California's. This provision is a throwback to the earliest days of the Republic. It was crafted for a different time. In this era, it would produce an outcome guaranteed to outrage much of the population and greatly diminish popular trust in constitutional mechanisms. A clear Bush victory would be a lesser evil.
Naturally, this is an unlikely and maybe even far-fetched scenario. In daily amalgamations of state polling, Kerry has managed to stay well above 270. He has 4 viable routes to the White House: carrying one of the Big Three OR carrying Nevada and West Virginia together. Given Bush's high disapproval ratings, and the relatively high amount of economic dissatisfaction in swing states, those are still good odds. I hope.
Tuesday, August 03, 2004
Nader's campaign has turned in around 50,000 signatures in Pennsylvania, trying to meet a requirement for around 25,000, reports the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Now begins the usual round of legal challenges.
Nader's "Western Pennsylvania coordinator" turns out to be a 22 year old recent college graduate. Perhaps this is a very precocious individual, but one is tempted to think that a 22 year old coordinating a petition drive across the expanses of western Pennsylvania is a reflection of how shoestring and half-assed the Nader campaign is this year. Especially since this guy and his colleague both drove across the state to Harrisburg and turned in their signatures 10 minutes before the deadline. Sort of like a term paper. I wonder if they proofread.
Pennsylvania has been fairly stable for Kerry, so far, and a Nader presence on the ballot probably wouldn't pose too dire a challenge for him. Still, it's probably worthwhile to see how many John Does are on the petitions.
The number of wavering liberals supporting Nader - ie voters who want to see Bush defeated - is inevitably going to be smaller this time out. According to polls, some of Nader's base is disturbed by reports of him taking help from Republicans. What's left after the waverers desert? (Just as in 2000 they will in close races as the clock ticks down.) A very strange core of voters who are exceedingly unlikely to vote for any Democrat. Who can't be bothered to care about the direction of this country, having invested themselves in the unlikely proposition that Ralph Nader is anything other than an aging egomaniac.
Nader's "Western Pennsylvania coordinator" turns out to be a 22 year old recent college graduate. Perhaps this is a very precocious individual, but one is tempted to think that a 22 year old coordinating a petition drive across the expanses of western Pennsylvania is a reflection of how shoestring and half-assed the Nader campaign is this year. Especially since this guy and his colleague both drove across the state to Harrisburg and turned in their signatures 10 minutes before the deadline. Sort of like a term paper. I wonder if they proofread.
Pennsylvania has been fairly stable for Kerry, so far, and a Nader presence on the ballot probably wouldn't pose too dire a challenge for him. Still, it's probably worthwhile to see how many John Does are on the petitions.
The number of wavering liberals supporting Nader - ie voters who want to see Bush defeated - is inevitably going to be smaller this time out. According to polls, some of Nader's base is disturbed by reports of him taking help from Republicans. What's left after the waverers desert? (Just as in 2000 they will in close races as the clock ticks down.) A very strange core of voters who are exceedingly unlikely to vote for any Democrat. Who can't be bothered to care about the direction of this country, having invested themselves in the unlikely proposition that Ralph Nader is anything other than an aging egomaniac.
Monday, August 02, 2004
Bouncespotting
The national media - abetted by the GOP - is reporting the absence of a post-convention bounce for Kerry.
I have my doubts.
This obsessive effort to put a microscope over public opinion and declare a campaign event a success or failure just seems ridiculous.
Kerry's support has historically not jumped so much as it's crept upward. There wasn't a bounce after the Edwards choice was announced, but instead a slow increase. That is significant in an election where undecided voters are becoming scarce. Many of the people who a post-convention bounce might have swept up came off the fence weeks ago. Comparison's between Kerry's post-convention bounce and that of other candidates break down on that distinction.
The national media fervently wishes that political reporting was as easy as sportscasting. They've tried to establish solid rules to make the task easier on themselves. If you're impressed by their certitude, remember the cocky words of Dan Rather when he called Florida, one strange night in 2000.
The national media - abetted by the GOP - is reporting the absence of a post-convention bounce for Kerry.
I have my doubts.
This obsessive effort to put a microscope over public opinion and declare a campaign event a success or failure just seems ridiculous.
Kerry's support has historically not jumped so much as it's crept upward. There wasn't a bounce after the Edwards choice was announced, but instead a slow increase. That is significant in an election where undecided voters are becoming scarce. Many of the people who a post-convention bounce might have swept up came off the fence weeks ago. Comparison's between Kerry's post-convention bounce and that of other candidates break down on that distinction.
The national media fervently wishes that political reporting was as easy as sportscasting. They've tried to establish solid rules to make the task easier on themselves. If you're impressed by their certitude, remember the cocky words of Dan Rather when he called Florida, one strange night in 2000.
Sunday, August 01, 2004
The magazine section of the New York Times features a terrific feature about the South Dakota senate race, Hunting Mr. Democrat. The author, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, has clearly spent a lot of time with John Thune, and delved into the nuances of South Dakota politics. I'd recommend reading it in its entirety.
The picture she paints is not altogether encouraging to Thune. South Dakota Republicans remain divided between supporters of Thune and supporters of the now-jailed former governor Bill Janklow. The latter group is suspicious of Thune. Efforts by the national Republican leadership tend to miscarry in South Dakota, which is not receptive to the caustic attacks that have worked well elsewhere. Put another way, the Republicans won't be able to give Daschle the Max Cleland treatment. Also charted by the article is the extent of Thune's dependence on the national GOP -at the real risk that it will cost him the race. Thune's use of out-of-state GOP talent used to more aggressive campaigns ensures that this race will end up in the gutter at some point:
This is the best single introduction to the SD race I've seen - definitely check it out.
The picture she paints is not altogether encouraging to Thune. South Dakota Republicans remain divided between supporters of Thune and supporters of the now-jailed former governor Bill Janklow. The latter group is suspicious of Thune. Efforts by the national Republican leadership tend to miscarry in South Dakota, which is not receptive to the caustic attacks that have worked well elsewhere. Put another way, the Republicans won't be able to give Daschle the Max Cleland treatment. Also charted by the article is the extent of Thune's dependence on the national GOP -at the real risk that it will cost him the race. Thune's use of out-of-state GOP talent used to more aggressive campaigns ensures that this race will end up in the gutter at some point:
- [Some] South Dakota Republicans say Thune will lose if the campaign gets too nasty. [One says] ''I'll tell you something. What I'm telling you is exactly what I'm telling John Thune: Be a gentleman. Take the high road. I basically told them, 'All he has to do is be John Thune, and forget about this national stuff, all this national party.'
But Thune cannot forget. In taking on Daschle, he has entered into an unwritten pact with his party's leaders -- a run against the most powerful Senate Democrat in America in exchange for access to their lucrative networks in places like Austin, Tex. So he needs them right now, as much as they need him -- even if having too many powerful friends could make Thune look like he isn't his own man.
This is the best single introduction to the SD race I've seen - definitely check it out.
