Wednesday, August 04, 2004
Nightmare: 2004
The LA Times has a nice dynamic electoral map that lets the user play out electoral scenarios.
I've been going by the general rule of thumb that Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (plus NH, which is trending nicely) AND one of three chunky swing states: Missouri, Ohio or Florida.
But, since he's done well in a couple of small states Bush won the last time out, Nevada and West Virginia, I wondered to myself how he'd do if he took one of those and none of the Big Three.
This prompted a horrifying revelation. Were he to snag New Hampshire and either Nevada or West Virginia, Kerry would tie with Bush at 269 electoral votes apiece. At which point, an obscure constitutional provision swings into effect. The election goes to the House, which then votes by state delegation. Since the Republicans control 30 of the 50 state delegations, the outcome would be a certain victory for Dubya. Just as in 2000, the popular vote would go out the window and if current trends hold, the vote would be Kerry's.
This is a nightmare independent of anything that happens in Florida's balloting process (though it does entail Dubya carrying the state). Think of it - another election determined through a strange and obscure set of indirect processes. One may object that the House is democratically elected, but the reversion to state delegation balloting weighs Wyoming's delegation the same as California's. This provision is a throwback to the earliest days of the Republic. It was crafted for a different time. In this era, it would produce an outcome guaranteed to outrage much of the population and greatly diminish popular trust in constitutional mechanisms. A clear Bush victory would be a lesser evil.
Naturally, this is an unlikely and maybe even far-fetched scenario. In daily amalgamations of state polling, Kerry has managed to stay well above 270. He has 4 viable routes to the White House: carrying one of the Big Three OR carrying Nevada and West Virginia together. Given Bush's high disapproval ratings, and the relatively high amount of economic dissatisfaction in swing states, those are still good odds. I hope.
The LA Times has a nice dynamic electoral map that lets the user play out electoral scenarios.
I've been going by the general rule of thumb that Kerry needs to win all the Gore states (plus NH, which is trending nicely) AND one of three chunky swing states: Missouri, Ohio or Florida.
But, since he's done well in a couple of small states Bush won the last time out, Nevada and West Virginia, I wondered to myself how he'd do if he took one of those and none of the Big Three.
This prompted a horrifying revelation. Were he to snag New Hampshire and either Nevada or West Virginia, Kerry would tie with Bush at 269 electoral votes apiece. At which point, an obscure constitutional provision swings into effect. The election goes to the House, which then votes by state delegation. Since the Republicans control 30 of the 50 state delegations, the outcome would be a certain victory for Dubya. Just as in 2000, the popular vote would go out the window and if current trends hold, the vote would be Kerry's.
This is a nightmare independent of anything that happens in Florida's balloting process (though it does entail Dubya carrying the state). Think of it - another election determined through a strange and obscure set of indirect processes. One may object that the House is democratically elected, but the reversion to state delegation balloting weighs Wyoming's delegation the same as California's. This provision is a throwback to the earliest days of the Republic. It was crafted for a different time. In this era, it would produce an outcome guaranteed to outrage much of the population and greatly diminish popular trust in constitutional mechanisms. A clear Bush victory would be a lesser evil.
Naturally, this is an unlikely and maybe even far-fetched scenario. In daily amalgamations of state polling, Kerry has managed to stay well above 270. He has 4 viable routes to the White House: carrying one of the Big Three OR carrying Nevada and West Virginia together. Given Bush's high disapproval ratings, and the relatively high amount of economic dissatisfaction in swing states, those are still good odds. I hope.
