Wednesday, February 16, 2005
A Hiatus of Sorts
The political world is as interesting as ever, but I'm unlikely to post much about it in the next few weeks or so. Catch you after the Ides of March.
The political world is as interesting as ever, but I'm unlikely to post much about it in the next few weeks or so. Catch you after the Ides of March.
Friday, February 04, 2005
What John Edwards is up to
I supported John Edwards during the primaries and was glad to see Kerry pick him as a running mate. I don't really subscribe to the "Blame Edwards" theory of the election - no one I've read has yet formulated a scenario for an electoral win with someone else (ie "opportunity cost"), nor have I seen any arguments that list serious damage done to the Kerry campaign by the choice. It all boils down to basic Monday morning quarterbacking.
Anyway, I've wondered what Edwards would be up to after his run. Clearly he took a wild gamble in running for president after a single term, and North Carolina wasn't about to let him have it both ways (unlike Connecticut back in 2000). The loss now forces Edwards to, if he wants to compete in 2008, find something visible and compelling to do for four years - and it will most certainly be something done out of government. From 2006 onward, he'll need to be gathering steam for the race.
I found out what he's doing today in an email he sent to his supporters. He notes that, thankfully, Elizabeth Edwards is doing well and seems very likely to fully recover from her cancer. On the question of his future, Edwards writes:
Frankly, this seems like a good move for him. Poverty was one of the issues he spoke with real passion about - and it has the virtue of legitimating Edwards with the feisty base. An academic center offers Edwards the opportunity to advance real policy positions that speak to a broad swath of Americans. This does not help him on security issues, which probably won't recede much by 2008, but academic contacts may let him work more with that arena over time as well.
It strikes me that Edwards is trying something very similar to Bobby Kennedy's famous tour of the South after he left the Johnson administration - a tour that advanced him remarkably on the eve of the 1968 race. Edwards will have a lot of hard work to do, but I think he's chosen the right place to do it.
I supported John Edwards during the primaries and was glad to see Kerry pick him as a running mate. I don't really subscribe to the "Blame Edwards" theory of the election - no one I've read has yet formulated a scenario for an electoral win with someone else (ie "opportunity cost"), nor have I seen any arguments that list serious damage done to the Kerry campaign by the choice. It all boils down to basic Monday morning quarterbacking.
Anyway, I've wondered what Edwards would be up to after his run. Clearly he took a wild gamble in running for president after a single term, and North Carolina wasn't about to let him have it both ways (unlike Connecticut back in 2000). The loss now forces Edwards to, if he wants to compete in 2008, find something visible and compelling to do for four years - and it will most certainly be something done out of government. From 2006 onward, he'll need to be gathering steam for the race.
I found out what he's doing today in an email he sent to his supporters. He notes that, thankfully, Elizabeth Edwards is doing well and seems very likely to fully recover from her cancer. On the question of his future, Edwards writes:
- I am very proud to say that I will be joining UNC to launch its new Center on Poverty, Work and Opportunity, which will examine innovative and practical ideas for moving more Americans out of poverty and into the middle class. The fact that millions in this country go to work every day and still live in poverty is wrong and unacceptable. This is personal to me, and I believe that it is one of the most important moral issues of our time.
Together with UNC, I will work hands-on to explore creative approaches to the difficulties that families in poverty face every day. . . .
As I begin this process, I'm going to once again be asking you for your help.
What ideas do you have to reduce poverty in our country? What is working in your community and what can we as a nation be doing better? Once we get the Center up and running, we'll be asking for your input. This is too important an issue for us to be sitting on the sidelines - we need everybody's ideas.
Frankly, this seems like a good move for him. Poverty was one of the issues he spoke with real passion about - and it has the virtue of legitimating Edwards with the feisty base. An academic center offers Edwards the opportunity to advance real policy positions that speak to a broad swath of Americans. This does not help him on security issues, which probably won't recede much by 2008, but academic contacts may let him work more with that arena over time as well.
It strikes me that Edwards is trying something very similar to Bobby Kennedy's famous tour of the South after he left the Johnson administration - a tour that advanced him remarkably on the eve of the 1968 race. Edwards will have a lot of hard work to do, but I think he's chosen the right place to do it.
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
I'm not thrilled about it, but it looks as though Howard Dean will be the next DNC chair (or so the New York Times would have it).
My objections to him are below, and there's not too much to add, though I am disappointed that he's chosen to quarrel publicly with Harry Reid over the issue of judicial nominations. If he's in office, he won't serve the position well by airing disputes in public. If that means he has to starve himself of some publicity and his groupies of red meat, so be it.
Dean's challenge will be to speak for the party, not just for Howard Dean. He's apparently won a lot of support by wooing the various members of the DNC - presumably he's assured them of that. According to the Times, he's persuaded them "that he was not the liberal and undisciplined caricature that many said they saw last year." That does remain to be seen. How many other Democratic candidates decided to call liberal opponents Republicans?
I hope to God this guy surprises me, but I'm not making any leaps of faith where he's concerned. I wanted to be pleasantly surprised by him in the fall of 2003 as he was gathering steam, but the campaign that unfolded turned out to be a shrill farce worthy of Spinal Tap. Dean was not the most adaptive candidate on the campaign trail; I'd rather say that he boxed himself in. So, my expectations of his performance in office are pegged pragmatically at "modest." In the name of Edmund Muskie, Howard, try to stay above that bar.
My objections to him are below, and there's not too much to add, though I am disappointed that he's chosen to quarrel publicly with Harry Reid over the issue of judicial nominations. If he's in office, he won't serve the position well by airing disputes in public. If that means he has to starve himself of some publicity and his groupies of red meat, so be it.
Dean's challenge will be to speak for the party, not just for Howard Dean. He's apparently won a lot of support by wooing the various members of the DNC - presumably he's assured them of that. According to the Times, he's persuaded them "that he was not the liberal and undisciplined caricature that many said they saw last year." That does remain to be seen. How many other Democratic candidates decided to call liberal opponents Republicans?
I hope to God this guy surprises me, but I'm not making any leaps of faith where he's concerned. I wanted to be pleasantly surprised by him in the fall of 2003 as he was gathering steam, but the campaign that unfolded turned out to be a shrill farce worthy of Spinal Tap. Dean was not the most adaptive candidate on the campaign trail; I'd rather say that he boxed himself in. So, my expectations of his performance in office are pegged pragmatically at "modest." In the name of Edmund Muskie, Howard, try to stay above that bar.
