Monday, August 02, 2004
Bouncespotting
The national media - abetted by the GOP - is reporting the absence of a post-convention bounce for Kerry.
I have my doubts.
This obsessive effort to put a microscope over public opinion and declare a campaign event a success or failure just seems ridiculous.
Kerry's support has historically not jumped so much as it's crept upward. There wasn't a bounce after the Edwards choice was announced, but instead a slow increase. That is significant in an election where undecided voters are becoming scarce. Many of the people who a post-convention bounce might have swept up came off the fence weeks ago. Comparison's between Kerry's post-convention bounce and that of other candidates break down on that distinction.
The national media fervently wishes that political reporting was as easy as sportscasting. They've tried to establish solid rules to make the task easier on themselves. If you're impressed by their certitude, remember the cocky words of Dan Rather when he called Florida, one strange night in 2000.
The national media - abetted by the GOP - is reporting the absence of a post-convention bounce for Kerry.
I have my doubts.
This obsessive effort to put a microscope over public opinion and declare a campaign event a success or failure just seems ridiculous.
Kerry's support has historically not jumped so much as it's crept upward. There wasn't a bounce after the Edwards choice was announced, but instead a slow increase. That is significant in an election where undecided voters are becoming scarce. Many of the people who a post-convention bounce might have swept up came off the fence weeks ago. Comparison's between Kerry's post-convention bounce and that of other candidates break down on that distinction.
The national media fervently wishes that political reporting was as easy as sportscasting. They've tried to establish solid rules to make the task easier on themselves. If you're impressed by their certitude, remember the cocky words of Dan Rather when he called Florida, one strange night in 2000.
