Thursday, January 05, 2006
Facing Turbulence
With every passing day the status quo in the Middle East comes undone. Ongoing warfare in Iraq, an increasingly unhinged regime in Iran, an increasingly hard-pressed regime in Syria facing an increasingly headstrong Lebanon, and - with the incapacitation of Ariel Sharon - an uncertain situation in Israel accompanied by the rise of anarchy in the Palestinian territories: all these things augur a turbulent 2006. The Middle East has not been so unsettled since the 1970s.
What brought all this about? The invasion of Iraq must rank as a key factor, but it cannot be the only one. Oslo's clock struck twelve in the fall of 2000, making the relative calm of the 90s seem borrowed time. And, perhaps, time ran out for the Syrian occupation of Lebanon - this being compounded by the relative ineptitude of the leadership in Damascus. Iran's revolution has been off the rails for some time now; the extremism of Ahmadinejad comes after a decade of ineffectual moderation that fundamentally failed to meet the aspirations of the young Iranian population.
Such times would call for steady, wise leadership in Washington. We can't count on that. Nor, though, can we count on kneejerk opposition to presidential leadership to somehow illuminate the way forward. Bush's having been wrong about Iraq says nothing about his policies toward Iran or Syria. Here the relative caution of the Democratic leadership is a sign of prudence and not cowardice. Fundamentally it is recognized that the challenges of the Middle East are occurring on their own impetus - what is unfolding is a set of events only somewhat related to American policies. They cannot be wished away and they may have more disastrous consequences if let alone.
The one comfort is that the United States is not acting alone for the most part. Britain, France, and Germany have taken a leading role in confronting Tehran. France has worked with the United States to get Syria out of Lebanon. And the reality of Israel's pullout from Gaza, coupled with anarchy there and Ahmadinejad's rejectionism has pushed European public opinion back toward a greater realism. This is a challenge for the entire Western world, and if there is a bright side to this it is that the relative consensus that preceded Iraq may yet be recovered.
What brought all this about? The invasion of Iraq must rank as a key factor, but it cannot be the only one. Oslo's clock struck twelve in the fall of 2000, making the relative calm of the 90s seem borrowed time. And, perhaps, time ran out for the Syrian occupation of Lebanon - this being compounded by the relative ineptitude of the leadership in Damascus. Iran's revolution has been off the rails for some time now; the extremism of Ahmadinejad comes after a decade of ineffectual moderation that fundamentally failed to meet the aspirations of the young Iranian population.
Such times would call for steady, wise leadership in Washington. We can't count on that. Nor, though, can we count on kneejerk opposition to presidential leadership to somehow illuminate the way forward. Bush's having been wrong about Iraq says nothing about his policies toward Iran or Syria. Here the relative caution of the Democratic leadership is a sign of prudence and not cowardice. Fundamentally it is recognized that the challenges of the Middle East are occurring on their own impetus - what is unfolding is a set of events only somewhat related to American policies. They cannot be wished away and they may have more disastrous consequences if let alone.
The one comfort is that the United States is not acting alone for the most part. Britain, France, and Germany have taken a leading role in confronting Tehran. France has worked with the United States to get Syria out of Lebanon. And the reality of Israel's pullout from Gaza, coupled with anarchy there and Ahmadinejad's rejectionism has pushed European public opinion back toward a greater realism. This is a challenge for the entire Western world, and if there is a bright side to this it is that the relative consensus that preceded Iraq may yet be recovered.
