Sunday, September 18, 2005
Germany Muddles Along
I had high hopes for the German election. It seemed time for a change, and as a committed Atlanticist, the prospect of an Angela Merkel victory was tantalizing for me. Merkel is no Tony Blair, but she's a long way from being Jacques Chirac. Under her leadership, Germany could resume its old role as the continental balancer between Britain and France, rather than serving as a sidekick to Gaullism.
The election outcome seems baffling to Germans, and undermines the German case for their system as the happy medium between the US/UK "first past the post" and purer forms of proportional representation. The stability of the German system flowed from having relatively few parties and having tailor-made coalitions that could be formed between rival duos. Now that fifth party has crashed the scene - one that seemingly exists only as a spoiler and wants no part of a coalition with the SPD - Germany seems destined to endure some of the worse features of PR: thin majorities, petty squabbles within coalitions, and coalitions forming not as a consequence of a clear popular mandate but due to backroom finagling.
If I had to bet, I'd bet on a grand coalition, but not one that will last for very long. The only other options would be for LaFontaine's xenophobic Left Party to rejoin Schröder's SPD (which neither side wants very much), the Free Democrats to cross over and join an SPD coalition or the Greens to join a CDU government. Neither act of defection seems likely. The last scenario seems best to me; Merkel would benefit from having the experienced Joschka Fischer at her side.
Germany needed a clean break from the stagnation of the Schröder years and the current chancellor's dead-end approach to trans-Atlantic relations. At a time when the crisis with Iran is heating up, NATO needs responsible leadership in Berlin. Schröder was incapable of providing it - as demonstrated by his earlier declaration that force was not an option with Tehran. All we can do is hope for either (somehow) a lasting Green-FDP-CDU coalition, or a very short grand coalition. Germany and the West deserve better.
The election outcome seems baffling to Germans, and undermines the German case for their system as the happy medium between the US/UK "first past the post" and purer forms of proportional representation. The stability of the German system flowed from having relatively few parties and having tailor-made coalitions that could be formed between rival duos. Now that fifth party has crashed the scene - one that seemingly exists only as a spoiler and wants no part of a coalition with the SPD - Germany seems destined to endure some of the worse features of PR: thin majorities, petty squabbles within coalitions, and coalitions forming not as a consequence of a clear popular mandate but due to backroom finagling.
If I had to bet, I'd bet on a grand coalition, but not one that will last for very long. The only other options would be for LaFontaine's xenophobic Left Party to rejoin Schröder's SPD (which neither side wants very much), the Free Democrats to cross over and join an SPD coalition or the Greens to join a CDU government. Neither act of defection seems likely. The last scenario seems best to me; Merkel would benefit from having the experienced Joschka Fischer at her side.
Germany needed a clean break from the stagnation of the Schröder years and the current chancellor's dead-end approach to trans-Atlantic relations. At a time when the crisis with Iran is heating up, NATO needs responsible leadership in Berlin. Schröder was incapable of providing it - as demonstrated by his earlier declaration that force was not an option with Tehran. All we can do is hope for either (somehow) a lasting Green-FDP-CDU coalition, or a very short grand coalition. Germany and the West deserve better.
