Sunday, July 31, 2005
Very Bad News
With the apparent death of John Garang in a plane crash the integrity of Sudan's peace process will be thoroughly tested. Garang was to serve as a counterbalancing force in the new Sudanese government. With their longtime nemesis gone, will Sudan's hardliners still accept a compromise peace with the Christian South? Or will they see the possibility of the SPLA unraveling just as the Angolan UNITA militia did after the death of Jonas Savimbi?
The implications for Darfur are hard to discern. If Sudan's peace process comes undone, this undermines Khartoum's primary alibi for forestalling intervention: that precipitous action would halt the peace process. On the other hand, if the government gets dizzy with success, it may step up its actions in Darfur as well. Trying times for Sudan and the region lie ahead, whatever the case.
The implications for Darfur are hard to discern. If Sudan's peace process comes undone, this undermines Khartoum's primary alibi for forestalling intervention: that precipitous action would halt the peace process. On the other hand, if the government gets dizzy with success, it may step up its actions in Darfur as well. Trying times for Sudan and the region lie ahead, whatever the case.
