Saturday, June 04, 2005
Lebanon
The murder of Samir Kassir illustrates one painful reality that Americans need to face about Lebanon: it is fairly likely to descend into violence if the standoff between pro-independence and pro-Syrian forces continues. The forces supporting Syria are too ruthless and too well armed to be cowed by students in Beirut. Hezbollah is lining up alongside the Syrians, and Bashar Assad will probably send back his army once he thinks the coast is clear - perhaps when another crisis is distracting the international community.
What follows is that international pressure serves as a necessary counterweight to the Syrians and perhaps to their Lebanese proxies. If Assad is informed that a return to Lebanon would prompt attacks on Syria itself, that may be sufficient to change the equation. The US and France have acted with reasonable cohesion on this issue.
One potential consequence over a Lebanese showdown is the end of the armistice between the US and Hezbollah. That will have serious consequences. Hezbollah pioneered mass terror while bin Laden was still hiding from the Red Army in Afghanistan. If fully aroused, they will bring an intact leadership structure and untapped resources to the jihadi struggle. While our enthusiasm for democracy in Lebanon is justifiable, and while we have good reason to oppose Syria, this fundamental fact needs to be remembered.
What follows is that international pressure serves as a necessary counterweight to the Syrians and perhaps to their Lebanese proxies. If Assad is informed that a return to Lebanon would prompt attacks on Syria itself, that may be sufficient to change the equation. The US and France have acted with reasonable cohesion on this issue.
One potential consequence over a Lebanese showdown is the end of the armistice between the US and Hezbollah. That will have serious consequences. Hezbollah pioneered mass terror while bin Laden was still hiding from the Red Army in Afghanistan. If fully aroused, they will bring an intact leadership structure and untapped resources to the jihadi struggle. While our enthusiasm for democracy in Lebanon is justifiable, and while we have good reason to oppose Syria, this fundamental fact needs to be remembered.
