Monday, May 16, 2005
The Sunbelt Shift
Ron Brownstein makes some good points in this article - mainly that the next few censuses are likely to observe a demographic shift away from the Northeast and upper Midwest and toward the South and Southwest. The dire implications of this for Democrats are readily apparent. The fleeting fantasy of winning outside of the South will move further out of sight.
One question, though: how much of the demographic shift flows from migration? This isn't just a matter of red staters procreating more actively than blue staters - clearly people are picking up and moving. So, isn't this process part of the solution for the Democrats? A recent Time article chronicled the gradual blueing of Montana due to this kind of process.
Admittedly, this doesn't let the Dems off the hook. They need to reclaim their edge - particularly with Hispanic voters. Still, there's no cause for gloom and doom. The current map isn't set in stone.
One question, though: how much of the demographic shift flows from migration? This isn't just a matter of red staters procreating more actively than blue staters - clearly people are picking up and moving. So, isn't this process part of the solution for the Democrats? A recent Time article chronicled the gradual blueing of Montana due to this kind of process.
Admittedly, this doesn't let the Dems off the hook. They need to reclaim their edge - particularly with Hispanic voters. Still, there's no cause for gloom and doom. The current map isn't set in stone.
