Sunday, May 01, 2005
Has it been 4-5 years already?
Only joking. It's time for another British election. I haven't followed the politics of Albion too terribly closely lately, but have been trying to get a sense of where this one is heading. It's a strange campaign, marked more by the weaknesses of the major candidates than their strengths. Let's see:
Tony Blair (Lab.) is still coping with the consequences of the Iraq war, which has soured much of his own party on him, to say nothing of the UK electorate.
Michael Howard (Con.) has been unsuccessful in capitalizing on this, as the Tories supported the war, themselves. Instead he's running a somewhat nativist campaign, focusing on immigration issues.
Charles Kennedy (Lib. Dem) would love to capitalize on Labour's credibility gap, but hasn't really managed to make great strides toward getting his party out of its niche role.
George Galloway, having been rejected by the Monster Raving Loony Party, founded his own with an Ali G. inspired name: the Respect Party. He's campaigning for placing statues of Saddam Hussein atop a golden calf in every British town center.
Actually, the Galloway-King race in Bethnal East and Bow constituency is probably the most dramatic (if distressing) race we'll see this time out. The level of violence there is quite high, with both Galloway and his Labour opponent, Oona King, having received threats. Galloway has been blatantly courting local Islamists, though with near-disastrous results on one occasion (for some reason, many of them don't want to vote in a secular election). News that Galloway's wife is filing for divorce may hurt his attempt to play the Aretha Franklin card.
Coming back to the main picture, polls generally favor (favour) Labour, and not by a little. The Thatcherite core of the Tories has been reduced to a pale Fourth Way platform, shorn of the radical appeals that the Iron Lady pitched so brilliantly. Blair has squarely grabbed the political center, and the Tories (who held it so strongly during the 80s) have been reduced to helpless spectators. Immigration is the one issue where they can claim some difference from Labour, but is it a winning one?
Labour is hardly out of the woods. In some regions, it may take a bath - the Daily Scotsman reports that Scotland may turn out as many as nine Labour MPs. Who fills that vacuum is anyone's guess - the Lib Dems, the SNP, or maybe even the Tories? I wouldn't expect a major resurgence of nationalism in Scotland, but Labour's strength there is one of the major factors holding back the SNP. If Scottish Labour gives ground, this may augur a somewhat brighter future for the moribund SNP.
Tony Blair's shaky public image seems the key factor here. It may cost Labour seats across the map. Some of this is due to the Iraq war; some to simple fatigue. The question is who is going to benefit. It seems a safe bet that Labour will lose seats, but I do think it will retain its majority and return Blair to office. Who will capitalize on Labour's weakening supermajority?
With no access to polling data, no time on the ground, no interviews, and (at heart) no real clue, I'd say that I suspect that we'll see a swing against Labour divided fairly evenly between the opposing parties: the Tories, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, and SNP will each gain somewhat, leaving Labour with a diminished but functional majority before intra-party squabbling is taken into account. Blair's supermajority of 1997 (achieved 8 years ago, today) was a remarkable feat, but a high water mark that seemed unlikely to be held in 2001. To some degree, history is catching up with Blair and New Labour, and balance is slowly returning to the British party system. The weakness of the other parties has been one factor delaying this event. Blair, who has signalled that this is his final campaign, will need to think about who is going to succeed him - and it would probably help to give his successor some time in office through the favor of an early resignation.
Actually, the Galloway-King race in Bethnal East and Bow constituency is probably the most dramatic (if distressing) race we'll see this time out. The level of violence there is quite high, with both Galloway and his Labour opponent, Oona King, having received threats. Galloway has been blatantly courting local Islamists, though with near-disastrous results on one occasion (for some reason, many of them don't want to vote in a secular election). News that Galloway's wife is filing for divorce may hurt his attempt to play the Aretha Franklin card.
Coming back to the main picture, polls generally favor (favour) Labour, and not by a little. The Thatcherite core of the Tories has been reduced to a pale Fourth Way platform, shorn of the radical appeals that the Iron Lady pitched so brilliantly. Blair has squarely grabbed the political center, and the Tories (who held it so strongly during the 80s) have been reduced to helpless spectators. Immigration is the one issue where they can claim some difference from Labour, but is it a winning one?
Labour is hardly out of the woods. In some regions, it may take a bath - the Daily Scotsman reports that Scotland may turn out as many as nine Labour MPs. Who fills that vacuum is anyone's guess - the Lib Dems, the SNP, or maybe even the Tories? I wouldn't expect a major resurgence of nationalism in Scotland, but Labour's strength there is one of the major factors holding back the SNP. If Scottish Labour gives ground, this may augur a somewhat brighter future for the moribund SNP.
Tony Blair's shaky public image seems the key factor here. It may cost Labour seats across the map. Some of this is due to the Iraq war; some to simple fatigue. The question is who is going to benefit. It seems a safe bet that Labour will lose seats, but I do think it will retain its majority and return Blair to office. Who will capitalize on Labour's weakening supermajority?
With no access to polling data, no time on the ground, no interviews, and (at heart) no real clue, I'd say that I suspect that we'll see a swing against Labour divided fairly evenly between the opposing parties: the Tories, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, and SNP will each gain somewhat, leaving Labour with a diminished but functional majority before intra-party squabbling is taken into account. Blair's supermajority of 1997 (achieved 8 years ago, today) was a remarkable feat, but a high water mark that seemed unlikely to be held in 2001. To some degree, history is catching up with Blair and New Labour, and balance is slowly returning to the British party system. The weakness of the other parties has been one factor delaying this event. Blair, who has signalled that this is his final campaign, will need to think about who is going to succeed him - and it would probably help to give his successor some time in office through the favor of an early resignation.
