Sunday, January 30, 2005
Believing in the Vote
Fred Kaplan is a pretty skeptical guy where the Iraq mission is concerned. When indicates that today's elections in Iraq were a big deal - and in a number of ways a success - that is praise not easily won.
It was easy to doubt the viability of the democratic process in Iraq as the death toll mounted over the last month. But the butcher Zarqawi's pledge to murder Iraqi voters has largely proved hollow. Maybe the banning of automobiles on the day of the vote was decisive, or maybe the eleventh hour raids made by the government and its U.S. allies had a preemptive effect. In any event, the Iraqi people took a deep breath and decided to come out.
Another dramatic election happened last fall in Ukraine, where voters challenged a decade's worth of fatalism to vote out a corrupt government. Elections are what you make of them: in the worst of circumstances, they're divisive and generate cynicism; in the best of circumstances, they're a civic shot in the arm. Ukraine's constitutional system has been revitalized. Iraq could - could - move out of the shadows.
A democratically elected Iraqi government could credibly recruit from amongst its own people. It could also credibly ask the U.S. to draw down its troop presence. A new government will have to weigh the military disadvantages of such a move against its obvious political advantages. The ethnic/religious hurdle remains formidable, but if 80% of Iraq's people are committed to its government, that's a solid start. The Shiites and Kurds do have an interest in seeing this work - the alternative to a messy democracy is a degree of anarchy that will make the last two years seem mild.
As Churchill put it, this isn't the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning.
Fred Kaplan is a pretty skeptical guy where the Iraq mission is concerned. When indicates that today's elections in Iraq were a big deal - and in a number of ways a success - that is praise not easily won.
It was easy to doubt the viability of the democratic process in Iraq as the death toll mounted over the last month. But the butcher Zarqawi's pledge to murder Iraqi voters has largely proved hollow. Maybe the banning of automobiles on the day of the vote was decisive, or maybe the eleventh hour raids made by the government and its U.S. allies had a preemptive effect. In any event, the Iraqi people took a deep breath and decided to come out.
Another dramatic election happened last fall in Ukraine, where voters challenged a decade's worth of fatalism to vote out a corrupt government. Elections are what you make of them: in the worst of circumstances, they're divisive and generate cynicism; in the best of circumstances, they're a civic shot in the arm. Ukraine's constitutional system has been revitalized. Iraq could - could - move out of the shadows.
A democratically elected Iraqi government could credibly recruit from amongst its own people. It could also credibly ask the U.S. to draw down its troop presence. A new government will have to weigh the military disadvantages of such a move against its obvious political advantages. The ethnic/religious hurdle remains formidable, but if 80% of Iraq's people are committed to its government, that's a solid start. The Shiites and Kurds do have an interest in seeing this work - the alternative to a messy democracy is a degree of anarchy that will make the last two years seem mild.
As Churchill put it, this isn't the beginning of the end, but it is the end of the beginning.
