Monday, November 01, 2004
Forecasting
I believe John Kerry will win tomorrow. In spite of what seems to be a mounting pile of reports of contemptible tricks by GOP operatives (falsely reporting a change in precinct location, making false claims that people with parking tickets who vote will be sent to jail, acting to preemptively disqualify minority voters) I think that a groundswell of popular support - particularly from newly registered voters - will push Kerry into office.
New voters favor Kerry by wide margins and voter registration is way up this year. A half a million new voters joined the rolls in Ohio. Similar gains have been reported in Florida and Iowa among other states. A lot of new voters are not being captured in the polls - just as in 2000, when most pre-election polls forecast a Bush victory in the popular vote. Polling organizations are demonstrably worse at capturing Democratic support. Be prepared to be surprised.
State level polling has largely offered good news to the Kerry campaign. With the exception of a couple of recent polls, Ohio has seemed winnable. Florida has moved into Kerry's column. Concerns about Wisconsin and Iowa have been ameliorated a bit by recent polls. In Iowa, polls of voters report that some 30% have already voted and those who have favor Kerry by an 8 point margin. Not bad so far.
The Bush campaign has fundamentally misplayed this election. It cast John Kerry as a hapless flip flopper and thereby set the bar so low that Kerry's strong debate performances utterly destroyed the fruits of a month's worth of negative campaigning. As Iraq has continued to worsen, the president's indignant denial that he's made any mistakes precluded any real improvement in his favorability ratings. His only shot was to get people to think about 9/11 and not Iraq; job growth in the last year and a half but not between 2001 and 2003. A more articulate or wise man might have managed such sleight of hand. Dubya fell far short of that.
The president showed himself to make a fetish out of his certainty. He did not shirk from implying through subordinates that a Kerry victory would endanger America. His campaign pursued numerous dirty tricks just under the counter - the current vote suppression efforts are only the latest. It was all very transparent. The Republicans have savaged one Democrat after another in this fashion, accusing them of inconsistency or excess liberalism or both. People have heard all this before. These tricks seemed ineffective in Kerry's October, when Bush's post convention lead shriveled up.
My bet is that Kerry will pick up Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire, while holding down Iowa and Wisconsin and hopefully New Mexico. Ohio is probably iffier. Florida is iffy for other reasons. But this time we know what we can expect. The irregularities of 2000 have been studied in depth. There is real cause for hope now. No incumbent in recent history has entered the home stretch with approval ratings so low and won. Not in the age of television.
There is one thing to remember about the Bushies: they never know when they're beat. Overconfidence is their cardinal flaw and they've never managed to address it. From Tora Bora to Baghdad, from Jim Jeffords to John Kerry they simply have a hard time recognizing when strategies fail them. As a faith based administration, they cannot adapt. They've mismanaged this country, its relations abroad, the occupation of Iraq and their own reelection campaign. Sooner or later the bill comes due. Tomorrow they're going to get their asses kicked and the rest of us will be able to breathe again.
I believe John Kerry will win tomorrow. In spite of what seems to be a mounting pile of reports of contemptible tricks by GOP operatives (falsely reporting a change in precinct location, making false claims that people with parking tickets who vote will be sent to jail, acting to preemptively disqualify minority voters) I think that a groundswell of popular support - particularly from newly registered voters - will push Kerry into office.
New voters favor Kerry by wide margins and voter registration is way up this year. A half a million new voters joined the rolls in Ohio. Similar gains have been reported in Florida and Iowa among other states. A lot of new voters are not being captured in the polls - just as in 2000, when most pre-election polls forecast a Bush victory in the popular vote. Polling organizations are demonstrably worse at capturing Democratic support. Be prepared to be surprised.
State level polling has largely offered good news to the Kerry campaign. With the exception of a couple of recent polls, Ohio has seemed winnable. Florida has moved into Kerry's column. Concerns about Wisconsin and Iowa have been ameliorated a bit by recent polls. In Iowa, polls of voters report that some 30% have already voted and those who have favor Kerry by an 8 point margin. Not bad so far.
The Bush campaign has fundamentally misplayed this election. It cast John Kerry as a hapless flip flopper and thereby set the bar so low that Kerry's strong debate performances utterly destroyed the fruits of a month's worth of negative campaigning. As Iraq has continued to worsen, the president's indignant denial that he's made any mistakes precluded any real improvement in his favorability ratings. His only shot was to get people to think about 9/11 and not Iraq; job growth in the last year and a half but not between 2001 and 2003. A more articulate or wise man might have managed such sleight of hand. Dubya fell far short of that.
The president showed himself to make a fetish out of his certainty. He did not shirk from implying through subordinates that a Kerry victory would endanger America. His campaign pursued numerous dirty tricks just under the counter - the current vote suppression efforts are only the latest. It was all very transparent. The Republicans have savaged one Democrat after another in this fashion, accusing them of inconsistency or excess liberalism or both. People have heard all this before. These tricks seemed ineffective in Kerry's October, when Bush's post convention lead shriveled up.
My bet is that Kerry will pick up Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire, while holding down Iowa and Wisconsin and hopefully New Mexico. Ohio is probably iffier. Florida is iffy for other reasons. But this time we know what we can expect. The irregularities of 2000 have been studied in depth. There is real cause for hope now. No incumbent in recent history has entered the home stretch with approval ratings so low and won. Not in the age of television.
There is one thing to remember about the Bushies: they never know when they're beat. Overconfidence is their cardinal flaw and they've never managed to address it. From Tora Bora to Baghdad, from Jim Jeffords to John Kerry they simply have a hard time recognizing when strategies fail them. As a faith based administration, they cannot adapt. They've mismanaged this country, its relations abroad, the occupation of Iraq and their own reelection campaign. Sooner or later the bill comes due. Tomorrow they're going to get their asses kicked and the rest of us will be able to breathe again.
