Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Daschle in South Dakota
I'm going to go further out on a limb and forecast a Daschle victory. Daschle has a proven track record of helping South Dakota. He is the model of an effective small state politician - how many other senators drive through each of their state's counties each year? His opponent has waged a fairly nasty campaign in a state with an avowed preference for civility. I think this will backfire. Thune will come close but in the end Daschle's record and possibly the sense of South Dakotans of the likelihood of a Kerry victory will keep Tom in office. The White House failed the last time they tried to back Thune; from the conduct of this campaign, it's not clear that they learned anything from the experience.
A few other predictions while I'm at it:
Salazar (D) over Coors (R) in Colorado. Coors hasn't found the momentum to challenge Salazar.
Knowles (D) of Murkowski (R) in Alaska. Knowles is as solid a Democrat as Alaska has and he's retained an edge for most of the campaign
Carson (D) over Coburn (R) in Oklahoma. Coburn is out of his gourd and Carson is a very solid candidate who has retained a lead in most polls.
Obama (D) will take over 65%. Not bad for a first run.
DeMint (R) over Tenenbaum (D) in South Carolina. This pains me, but Tenenbaum never got the edge.
Bunning (R) v. Mongiardo (D) - I honestly don't know. Are Kentuckians willing to elect a senator to be named later? Or to run the risk of being represented by a man with some form of senility? Good grief.
Bowles (D) over Burr (R) in North Carolina. Bowles has had solid name recognition and has run an effective campaign. This one is currently too close to call, but I'll give him the edge.
Castor (D) over Martinez (R) in Florida. Betty Castor is a solid candidate and her foe Martinez's attacks haven't worked very well - some have boomeranged badly against him in fact.
Louisiana - Heaven only knows.
Predicting a final Senate is beyond my limited means. The GOP won't be widening their majority, methinks. If I'm right, and Tom Daschle returns, the Democrats will have the best man available to coordinate with the Kerry White House.
I'm going to go further out on a limb and forecast a Daschle victory. Daschle has a proven track record of helping South Dakota. He is the model of an effective small state politician - how many other senators drive through each of their state's counties each year? His opponent has waged a fairly nasty campaign in a state with an avowed preference for civility. I think this will backfire. Thune will come close but in the end Daschle's record and possibly the sense of South Dakotans of the likelihood of a Kerry victory will keep Tom in office. The White House failed the last time they tried to back Thune; from the conduct of this campaign, it's not clear that they learned anything from the experience.
A few other predictions while I'm at it:
Predicting a final Senate is beyond my limited means. The GOP won't be widening their majority, methinks. If I'm right, and Tom Daschle returns, the Democrats will have the best man available to coordinate with the Kerry White House.
