Thursday, October 28, 2004
The Outlook
We're approaching the final weekend and it's looking tight but somewhat favorable for Kerry. Polling of battleground states is getting intense now. Ohio is looking good - close but Kerry leads in most polls. Florida is a tougher call to make - Dubya seems to be leading at least as often as Kerry, or you have outright ties. Kerry would still do well to put some weight down there. In some ways, Florida is better territory for him than it was for Gore, who had very high negatives in Miami.
Arkansas is reputedly in a near tie. Clinton's return may give Kerry some momentum there. New Hampshire is looking good for Kerry, and he really does need it.
The Upper Midwest is his top concern. As a rule, Kerry can't lose two states there (well he can, but it requires him to pick up Florida). Wisconsin, thankfully seems to be trending back his way. Maybe Iowa too, which is evenly balanced.
The general rule of thumb is that Dubya is in trouble if he has 47% or less, since undecideds tend to break against the incumbent. A lot of faith is being placed in that rule, but Dubya happens to be a pretty abrasive incumbent. If you don't like him now, he's not going to win your heart in 4.5 days.
GOP efforts at vote suppression are starting to get press. Some truly contemptible shit has been happening. It may be decisive, or - more likely - it may spur voters to the polls. It's probably the equivalent of trying to cap a geyser. All they'll get is scalded - and this will only be before we have a Department of Justice that will invest the time to look into this.
There are no certainties in our half-assed flawed electoral process but I feel a Kerry victory is on the way. Please do everything you can to help it along, but whatever you do, don't despair, even if the next 4 days prove trying. This thing is eminently winnable; actually it's in the process of being won.
We're approaching the final weekend and it's looking tight but somewhat favorable for Kerry. Polling of battleground states is getting intense now. Ohio is looking good - close but Kerry leads in most polls. Florida is a tougher call to make - Dubya seems to be leading at least as often as Kerry, or you have outright ties. Kerry would still do well to put some weight down there. In some ways, Florida is better territory for him than it was for Gore, who had very high negatives in Miami.
Arkansas is reputedly in a near tie. Clinton's return may give Kerry some momentum there. New Hampshire is looking good for Kerry, and he really does need it.
The Upper Midwest is his top concern. As a rule, Kerry can't lose two states there (well he can, but it requires him to pick up Florida). Wisconsin, thankfully seems to be trending back his way. Maybe Iowa too, which is evenly balanced.
The general rule of thumb is that Dubya is in trouble if he has 47% or less, since undecideds tend to break against the incumbent. A lot of faith is being placed in that rule, but Dubya happens to be a pretty abrasive incumbent. If you don't like him now, he's not going to win your heart in 4.5 days.
GOP efforts at vote suppression are starting to get press. Some truly contemptible shit has been happening. It may be decisive, or - more likely - it may spur voters to the polls. It's probably the equivalent of trying to cap a geyser. All they'll get is scalded - and this will only be before we have a Department of Justice that will invest the time to look into this.
There are no certainties in our half-assed flawed electoral process but I feel a Kerry victory is on the way. Please do everything you can to help it along, but whatever you do, don't despair, even if the next 4 days prove trying. This thing is eminently winnable; actually it's in the process of being won.
