Tuesday, October 19, 2004
The Big Three
In 2000, they were MI, PA and FL. Gore conceded OH early and was rewarded with a surprisingly narrow loss. Oops.
This year, Kerry wants OH very badly. MI has been more solidly pro-Kerry than it was for Gore. In fact, it's been more reliable than MN or WI. PA has been largely in Kerry's camp, except during the horrible month of Bush ascendance. FL - well who knows what the devil is going on down there. Hurricanes and electoral interference and Lord knows what else.
My guess is that Kerry will win both OH and FL, at least before you take Republican interference into account. He'll win fairly clearly in PA as well. There are too many unknowns in this deeply unsavory election.
In 2000, they were MI, PA and FL. Gore conceded OH early and was rewarded with a surprisingly narrow loss. Oops.
This year, Kerry wants OH very badly. MI has been more solidly pro-Kerry than it was for Gore. In fact, it's been more reliable than MN or WI. PA has been largely in Kerry's camp, except during the horrible month of Bush ascendance. FL - well who knows what the devil is going on down there. Hurricanes and electoral interference and Lord knows what else.
My guess is that Kerry will win both OH and FL, at least before you take Republican interference into account. He'll win fairly clearly in PA as well. There are too many unknowns in this deeply unsavory election.
