Saturday, September 18, 2004
Nader's back in Florida
At heart, I really don't think he'll be as much of a spoiler this year. In 2000, after 8 years of Clinton, wavering liberals were in a position to be tempted. The question of how Dubya would rule was hypothetical. That's just no longer true.
After 4 galvanizing years, any wavering liberals prone to supporting Nader in 2000 who haven't moved over to Kerry are unlikely to heed any combination of appeals or logic. They're not like you and I. In some fundamental way, they don't care.
Frankly, I doubt that there are many in this category. What remains of Nader's support comes from fringes that a liberal Democrat has little hope of reaching.
Nader, himself, is different this year. I think the bloom is now well off. The absence of well-known supporters dogs him. His fundraising has been meager. He's been off-message and surrounded by a pathetic cadre of sycophants like the earnest Kevin Zeese. His campaign appearances have been small scale: a church here, a school auditorium there. The novelty factor he had in 2000 is diminished. And his stridency has increased, with a corresponding diminution of his self-control. This is not his year. I don't believe that he has the power to make or break John Kerry. He'd like - if he could - deny another Democrat the Presidency, but his power base is altogether too feeble and deranged to do it.
At heart, I really don't think he'll be as much of a spoiler this year. In 2000, after 8 years of Clinton, wavering liberals were in a position to be tempted. The question of how Dubya would rule was hypothetical. That's just no longer true.
After 4 galvanizing years, any wavering liberals prone to supporting Nader in 2000 who haven't moved over to Kerry are unlikely to heed any combination of appeals or logic. They're not like you and I. In some fundamental way, they don't care.
Frankly, I doubt that there are many in this category. What remains of Nader's support comes from fringes that a liberal Democrat has little hope of reaching.
Nader, himself, is different this year. I think the bloom is now well off. The absence of well-known supporters dogs him. His fundraising has been meager. He's been off-message and surrounded by a pathetic cadre of sycophants like the earnest Kevin Zeese. His campaign appearances have been small scale: a church here, a school auditorium there. The novelty factor he had in 2000 is diminished. And his stridency has increased, with a corresponding diminution of his self-control. This is not his year. I don't believe that he has the power to make or break John Kerry. He'd like - if he could - deny another Democrat the Presidency, but his power base is altogether too feeble and deranged to do it.
