Sunday, July 04, 2004
South Dakota - General Thoughts
One of the conventional bits of wisdom about South Dakota's impending election is that the victory of Democrat Stephanie Herseth in the special election for the state's House seat bodes badly for Tom Daschle. The rationale is that South Dakotans, generally conservative folk, are unwilling to have their Congressional delegation entirely run by Democrats. On that basis, someone's got to go: Daschle or Herseth when they both face reelection this fall.
Is that really a solid motivating factor? South Dakota has a Republican governor and the GOP dominates both houses of the state legislature by substantial majorities. South Dakota votes reliably for Republican candidates for president. South Dakotans will be generally be casting at least two Republican votes (for president and state legislature) when they hit the booths this November; I don't know that they'd feel incomplete without a third. To South Dakotans used to accepting Tom Daschle, a Democratic Congressional delegation may actually seem like balance.
I'm not a South Dakotan. I've never been there, though I hope to drive through at some point. But here's my reading of the election. South Dakota is a small state with citizens used to knowing their representatives. Daschle and Thune are both astute at local politics. I think Thune hurts himself by running as the president's man, but allowing himself to be the White House's implement for punishing Tom Daschle. Daschle put himself in harms way by his (limited) questioning of the administration on Iraq, but at this point his doubts look prescient and will hopefully appear so in a state with a disproportionate number of active servicemen. If Daschle runs as a local who can deliver - especially in light of a Kerry victory or the prospect of a Democratic Senate - and Thune runs as Bush's friend, I'd think the election would go to Daschle. South Dakota voters aren't in this to act as the GOP's enforcers. As citizens of a state that is fairly impoverished, small, and often at a loss for getting Washington's attention - notably 2 years ago when the Bush administration stalled on supporting drought relief - they have distinct needs. My out-of-state guess is that they'd have pause about unseating a native son with the strong capacity to deliver for them - especially if the case against him is made in such a partisan way.
One of the conventional bits of wisdom about South Dakota's impending election is that the victory of Democrat Stephanie Herseth in the special election for the state's House seat bodes badly for Tom Daschle. The rationale is that South Dakotans, generally conservative folk, are unwilling to have their Congressional delegation entirely run by Democrats. On that basis, someone's got to go: Daschle or Herseth when they both face reelection this fall.
Is that really a solid motivating factor? South Dakota has a Republican governor and the GOP dominates both houses of the state legislature by substantial majorities. South Dakota votes reliably for Republican candidates for president. South Dakotans will be generally be casting at least two Republican votes (for president and state legislature) when they hit the booths this November; I don't know that they'd feel incomplete without a third. To South Dakotans used to accepting Tom Daschle, a Democratic Congressional delegation may actually seem like balance.
I'm not a South Dakotan. I've never been there, though I hope to drive through at some point. But here's my reading of the election. South Dakota is a small state with citizens used to knowing their representatives. Daschle and Thune are both astute at local politics. I think Thune hurts himself by running as the president's man, but allowing himself to be the White House's implement for punishing Tom Daschle. Daschle put himself in harms way by his (limited) questioning of the administration on Iraq, but at this point his doubts look prescient and will hopefully appear so in a state with a disproportionate number of active servicemen. If Daschle runs as a local who can deliver - especially in light of a Kerry victory or the prospect of a Democratic Senate - and Thune runs as Bush's friend, I'd think the election would go to Daschle. South Dakota voters aren't in this to act as the GOP's enforcers. As citizens of a state that is fairly impoverished, small, and often at a loss for getting Washington's attention - notably 2 years ago when the Bush administration stalled on supporting drought relief - they have distinct needs. My out-of-state guess is that they'd have pause about unseating a native son with the strong capacity to deliver for them - especially if the case against him is made in such a partisan way.
