Tuesday, July 06, 2004
Kerry/Edwards
For once, the choice of a vice presidential candidate was no surprise. Democrats have been begging for this ticket since February, before the clear end of Edwards' own campaign. The main question was whether and when Kerry would overcome his own initial unease about the North Carolinian.
It was hard to see a contest between Edwards and Gephardt or Vilsack. The latter two are both established leaders, but Edwards brings a degree of excitement to the campaign that is unparalleled. Gephardt's primary base is that of union voters. Vilsack remains a leader with some regional appeal but little nationwide recognition.
Vilsack has his job in Iowa to go back to, but - though I'm happy that Edwards was picked - it's a bittersweet moment because of Richard Gephardt. Gephardt has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserved for his capable leadership of the Democratic House contingent during some very dark hours: after the 1994 GOP landslide and during the current administration. He has devoted his life to the political process in a way that few others have done. If he hasn't been the flashiest of leaders, he's been among the most capable and adroit. The qualities we look for in legislative leaders are only occasionally those we look for in presidential candidates - tellingly, the last legislative leader to rise to the presidency was the unelected Gerald Ford. The last to win a popular election (a reelection) was LBJ.
Were Kerry more of a Clintonesque campaigner, a Gephardt choice would make sense. Gephardt is an individual ready to assume the reins of government at a moment's notice. Edwards has good judgement and a good command of issues, but his real skills are on the campaign trail. The vice presidency would offer him an excellent opportunity to attain solid executive experience. Hypothetically speaking, he'd be a very strong candidate running on a VP record.
Edwards has remarkably broad appeal and best of all his appeal is concentrated in areas that Democrats normally have a hard time reaching: areas that are rural, Southern and somewhat conservative. People who see him speak are captivated, even those who are unlikely Democratic voters. The balance that he brings to the campaign is terrific and all this talk about him upstaging Kerry is likely to be nonsense. The two men complement each other marvellously. Edwards is going to throw the map open: difficult states like Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana are going to be less uphill; the impact in precipitously balanced states like Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin should also be sharp. Matthew Dowd, a pollster for Bush, wrote his boss a memo recently forecasting a 15% jump by the Kerry campaign. John Kerry's choice of Edwards makes this a real possibility, and messages like this in the Bush camp indicate the stirrings of real panic.
For once, the choice of a vice presidential candidate was no surprise. Democrats have been begging for this ticket since February, before the clear end of Edwards' own campaign. The main question was whether and when Kerry would overcome his own initial unease about the North Carolinian.
It was hard to see a contest between Edwards and Gephardt or Vilsack. The latter two are both established leaders, but Edwards brings a degree of excitement to the campaign that is unparalleled. Gephardt's primary base is that of union voters. Vilsack remains a leader with some regional appeal but little nationwide recognition.
Vilsack has his job in Iowa to go back to, but - though I'm happy that Edwards was picked - it's a bittersweet moment because of Richard Gephardt. Gephardt has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserved for his capable leadership of the Democratic House contingent during some very dark hours: after the 1994 GOP landslide and during the current administration. He has devoted his life to the political process in a way that few others have done. If he hasn't been the flashiest of leaders, he's been among the most capable and adroit. The qualities we look for in legislative leaders are only occasionally those we look for in presidential candidates - tellingly, the last legislative leader to rise to the presidency was the unelected Gerald Ford. The last to win a popular election (a reelection) was LBJ.
Were Kerry more of a Clintonesque campaigner, a Gephardt choice would make sense. Gephardt is an individual ready to assume the reins of government at a moment's notice. Edwards has good judgement and a good command of issues, but his real skills are on the campaign trail. The vice presidency would offer him an excellent opportunity to attain solid executive experience. Hypothetically speaking, he'd be a very strong candidate running on a VP record.
Edwards has remarkably broad appeal and best of all his appeal is concentrated in areas that Democrats normally have a hard time reaching: areas that are rural, Southern and somewhat conservative. People who see him speak are captivated, even those who are unlikely Democratic voters. The balance that he brings to the campaign is terrific and all this talk about him upstaging Kerry is likely to be nonsense. The two men complement each other marvellously. Edwards is going to throw the map open: difficult states like Virginia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana are going to be less uphill; the impact in precipitously balanced states like Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin should also be sharp. Matthew Dowd, a pollster for Bush, wrote his boss a memo recently forecasting a 15% jump by the Kerry campaign. John Kerry's choice of Edwards makes this a real possibility, and messages like this in the Bush camp indicate the stirrings of real panic.
