Tuesday, July 27, 2004
Electoral Optimism
I'm in good spirits about Kerry's chances. This time out, I'm following state polls with a passion and there's an abundance of great sites that let one do that: Tripias, Electoral-vote.com, and The Swing State Project. Taken all together, a survey of sites like these brings the following points to light:
Kerry is consistently leading in two huge states Gore had to fight bitterly for: Pennsylvania and Michigan. Zogby has his latest lead in these states as 6.5% and 8.7% respectively. Other polls have had it closer, but I like Zogby because of its record in 2000. PA and MI see-sawed for the entirety of 2000. Kerry seems more secure in them now than Gore did.
Oregon and Washington are more solidly for Kerry. Again, this is a big improvement over 2000. Kerry's lead in Oregon is reported at 9.2% and in Washington it is 7.6%.
New Mexico, which was decided by around 300 votes tells a similar story. The last Zogby gives it to Kerry by 9.8%.
Kerry's strong standing in once-vulnerable base states like these enables him to go on the offensive more and prey on Dubya's weak states. Here, he has had some success and some promising indicators:
Florida has been all over the map. The last Zogby poll has Bush up by .1%. Well it figures, since it's Florida
Lest we worry about another damn Florida finish, Ohio is also very tight. Tighter in 2004 than it was in 2000. Bush is currently up there, according to Zogby, but a rash of polls last week favored Kerry by 3-5 points. Right now, Ohio shows every sign of going down to the wire. As a Rust Belt state that isn't feeling the recovery, it may prove receptive to the Kerry/Edwards economic message.
Bush won Missouri the last time out. Kerry is currently ahead by .7% and has led in the last 4 polls there. Like Ohio, it will be close and down to the wire. This is a state where Edwards can definitely help.
Pundits were putting Arizona in the Bush column until an ASU poll had Kerry up 42-41%. This is very narrow, but the high number of undecideds is interesting and not atypical of polls from there.
Nevada also seems to have come unstuck for Dubya. Zogby has Kerry currently up there by .6%.
Most shockingly, a Zogby poll has Kerry up 2.2% in Tennessee.
Kerry still has some spots of concern.
Maine and New Hampshire are a little iffy. Kerry's been up in almost all NH polls, most recently by 4.7%. Maine is his by only 1% in the last Rasmussen survey.
The upper Midwest is still fluky. A Minnesota poll has the two candidates tied. However, Kerry has led in all Minnesota polls other than that one. Wisconsin has had more volatility, but Kerry currently leads there by 4.3%. In Iowa, his lead is a tenuous 1.8%.
Moral of the story? Kerry can relax more about his Pacific Coast base states and focus his efforts on retaining the upper Midwest and dipping into Missouri and Ohio. I'm loathe to say it, but Florida is also a target of opportunity. When he does hit the PST states, he absolutely should visit Arizona and Nevada along with his other stops. Keeping those two in play will deeply vex Bush.
The bottom line is that if Kerry holds the Gore states, he only has to win one of about 4 contested medium or large states (OH, MO, AZ, FL). Should Bush fail to seriously upset Kerry's hold on his base, he otherwise has to sweep the table. This current map puts Kerry on the offensive, anticipating a post-convention bounce. It's a good place to be. From a purely electoral perspective, I'd rather be in Kerry's shoes than Bush's.
I'm in good spirits about Kerry's chances. This time out, I'm following state polls with a passion and there's an abundance of great sites that let one do that: Tripias, Electoral-vote.com, and The Swing State Project. Taken all together, a survey of sites like these brings the following points to light:
Kerry's strong standing in once-vulnerable base states like these enables him to go on the offensive more and prey on Dubya's weak states. Here, he has had some success and some promising indicators:
Kerry still has some spots of concern.
Moral of the story? Kerry can relax more about his Pacific Coast base states and focus his efforts on retaining the upper Midwest and dipping into Missouri and Ohio. I'm loathe to say it, but Florida is also a target of opportunity. When he does hit the PST states, he absolutely should visit Arizona and Nevada along with his other stops. Keeping those two in play will deeply vex Bush.
The bottom line is that if Kerry holds the Gore states, he only has to win one of about 4 contested medium or large states (OH, MO, AZ, FL). Should Bush fail to seriously upset Kerry's hold on his base, he otherwise has to sweep the table. This current map puts Kerry on the offensive, anticipating a post-convention bounce. It's a good place to be. From a purely electoral perspective, I'd rather be in Kerry's shoes than Bush's.
