Sunday, May 09, 2004
State-by-state, Bush and Kerry are tied at 205 electoral votes apiece (if current state-level trends bear out), with 14 states undecided.
I prefer state-level polling to national polling. Saying that Bush leads Kerry 48-46 nationwide tells us very little - a.) because of the margin of error; b.) because this isn't a national race but 50 separate state races. Kerry won't care about running up his totals in California or New York as much as he will about getting an extra 3% in New Hampshire or Nevada. I'm surprised that nationwide polls get as much emphasis as they do.
I prefer state-level polling to national polling. Saying that Bush leads Kerry 48-46 nationwide tells us very little - a.) because of the margin of error; b.) because this isn't a national race but 50 separate state races. Kerry won't care about running up his totals in California or New York as much as he will about getting an extra 3% in New Hampshire or Nevada. I'm surprised that nationwide polls get as much emphasis as they do.
