Sunday, April 04, 2004
Jim Hoagland's Distemper in Europe leads one to an interesting conclusion - there have been no European winners on either side of the Iraq debate. Tony Blair is under siege. Aznar was just defeated - though his handling of the Madrid bombing was very significant and his party was leading prior to that. But on the other side of the aisle, Schroeder has been steadily battered in Germany and Chirac was hammered by the Socialists in France.
Iraq was an interregnum in normal patterns of European politics. Chirac's big victory in 2002 had something to do with the splintering of the left and less to do with any innate appeal - he's generally seen as old and corrupt. Schroeder just barely eked out a victory that same year.
With the recent hammering that Chirac has taken in the polls, he's reshuffled his cabinet. Dominique de Villepin, the moronic dilettante with a Napoleon fetish, is moving out of the foreign ministry and his successor will hopefully be more pragmatic. Tres interessante is the shifting of the popular Nicholas Sarkozy to the finance ministry. Sarkozy is the most popular politician in Chirac's party and his tough law and order stance and position on Islamic headwear has endeared him to French voters, but not to Chirac. Putting him at Finance may cut him off from his prior successes and leave him in a position to take blame from any economic downturns.
Which would be a shame because my hunch is that Sarkozy is the best leader France has to offer right now. Though he's gone with the party line, I think we have yet to see where he really stands on the trans-Atlantic partnership, but his prior success in combating hate crimes was the one positive mark on France's otherwise blemished record.
As Hoagland reminds us, the lines between the different European coalitions have been smudged over time. Continued political disruptions in Europe offer the hope that a new Western consensus can be formed.
Iraq was an interregnum in normal patterns of European politics. Chirac's big victory in 2002 had something to do with the splintering of the left and less to do with any innate appeal - he's generally seen as old and corrupt. Schroeder just barely eked out a victory that same year.
With the recent hammering that Chirac has taken in the polls, he's reshuffled his cabinet. Dominique de Villepin, the moronic dilettante with a Napoleon fetish, is moving out of the foreign ministry and his successor will hopefully be more pragmatic. Tres interessante is the shifting of the popular Nicholas Sarkozy to the finance ministry. Sarkozy is the most popular politician in Chirac's party and his tough law and order stance and position on Islamic headwear has endeared him to French voters, but not to Chirac. Putting him at Finance may cut him off from his prior successes and leave him in a position to take blame from any economic downturns.
Which would be a shame because my hunch is that Sarkozy is the best leader France has to offer right now. Though he's gone with the party line, I think we have yet to see where he really stands on the trans-Atlantic partnership, but his prior success in combating hate crimes was the one positive mark on France's otherwise blemished record.
As Hoagland reminds us, the lines between the different European coalitions have been smudged over time. Continued political disruptions in Europe offer the hope that a new Western consensus can be formed.
