Sunday, March 14, 2004
The Poll triumph of Spain's Socialists against the outgoing Jose Maria Aznar's government is undeniably related to the Madrid bombings. The government seems to have been held responsible for the bombings or blamed for the rush to judge ETA responsible after they occurred. No definitive answer is forthcoming.
As a result, the new Spanish government may well live up to the Socialist Party's pledge to pull Spanish troops from Iraq. This would be a body blow to American efforts to internationalize the peacekeeping mission there.
Worse would be the precedent set for Al Qaeda. If Al Qaeda is behind this bombing - and they do look to be so at this point in time - they have successfully inserted themselves into a European political process and shaped the ultimate outcome. A Spanish withdrawal from Iraq may well encourage the group to attack other countries with troops in Iraq or impending elections. To some degree these attacks may have shown European opinion that there is no sideline to the war against Islamist terror, but I wouldn't expect Al Qaeda to think so. Hamas once successfully premised its 1996 set of attacks in Israel on electing a Likud government; Al Qaeda may well have this precedent in mind. Whatever the new Spanish government does - and fighting terror is the first priority of the incoming prime minister - Al Qaeda has opened a front in Europe.
As a result, the new Spanish government may well live up to the Socialist Party's pledge to pull Spanish troops from Iraq. This would be a body blow to American efforts to internationalize the peacekeeping mission there.
Worse would be the precedent set for Al Qaeda. If Al Qaeda is behind this bombing - and they do look to be so at this point in time - they have successfully inserted themselves into a European political process and shaped the ultimate outcome. A Spanish withdrawal from Iraq may well encourage the group to attack other countries with troops in Iraq or impending elections. To some degree these attacks may have shown European opinion that there is no sideline to the war against Islamist terror, but I wouldn't expect Al Qaeda to think so. Hamas once successfully premised its 1996 set of attacks in Israel on electing a Likud government; Al Qaeda may well have this precedent in mind. Whatever the new Spanish government does - and fighting terror is the first priority of the incoming prime minister - Al Qaeda has opened a front in Europe.
