Saturday, February 07, 2004
With results in from the latest primaries, it seems clear that Dean is toast.
Were he viable, Washington state should have been his territory - the affluent, socially liberal voters of Seattle are the best pool of voters he's encountered. But he lost the state by 20 points. In fairness to him, Kucinich's 8% probably would have belonged to Dean otherwise, but this is a very bad finish for him. Wisconsin is probably moot at this point, and Kerry's decisive finish in Michigan probably bodes well for him in Wisconsin. A recent poll there finds Kerry up comfortably.
If Dean leaves the race, this could boost the fortunes of Clark or Edwards, but more likely Clark. Dean voters might be more likely to sulk and abstain than, say Gephardt voters, but Clark will probably reap the benefit from being more anti-war than Dean.
At this point, safe money is on Kerry. But it's good to keep in mind that it was on Dean one month ago.
Were he viable, Washington state should have been his territory - the affluent, socially liberal voters of Seattle are the best pool of voters he's encountered. But he lost the state by 20 points. In fairness to him, Kucinich's 8% probably would have belonged to Dean otherwise, but this is a very bad finish for him. Wisconsin is probably moot at this point, and Kerry's decisive finish in Michigan probably bodes well for him in Wisconsin. A recent poll there finds Kerry up comfortably.
If Dean leaves the race, this could boost the fortunes of Clark or Edwards, but more likely Clark. Dean voters might be more likely to sulk and abstain than, say Gephardt voters, but Clark will probably reap the benefit from being more anti-war than Dean.
At this point, safe money is on Kerry. But it's good to keep in mind that it was on Dean one month ago.
