Thursday, January 15, 2004
Red States and Purple States
A much-cited Zogby poll purports to demonstrate the deep divisions within the American electorate, more specifically the polarization of the Red states against the Blue states.
To quote the pollsters' summary:
Different, yes, but how different? The individuals hailing from Red states do largely adhere to conservative beliefs, but those from the Blue states seem evenly divided. They are most certainly NOT mirror images of the Red states. This is enough to make me think that we should cease talking about Red and Blue and start talking about Red and Purple.
Want some numbers? Let's look at the percentages on various questions.
The implication of this reading of the poll is dire for supporters of Dean, who claim that Dean's inability to campaign in the Red South is counterbalanced by the strengthening of liberal sentiment in states won by Gore. The case was made fairly strongly in Noam Schreiber's blog at The New Republic. Nothing in the Zogby poll convinces me that these states are getting more liberal. From all appearances, Dean will have to fight for his base states while Bush stays free to go on the offensive. And that, my friends, is a Democratic disaster in the making.
A much-cited Zogby poll purports to demonstrate the deep divisions within the American electorate, more specifically the polarization of the Red states against the Blue states.
To quote the pollsters' summary:
The poll reveals that as we enter what promises to be a very contentious 2004 presidential contest, George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger will be campaigning in two different, yet parallel universes.
Different, yes, but how different? The individuals hailing from Red states do largely adhere to conservative beliefs, but those from the Blue states seem evenly divided. They are most certainly NOT mirror images of the Red states. This is enough to make me think that we should cease talking about Red and Blue and start talking about Red and Purple.
Want some numbers? Let's look at the percentages on various questions.
- On whether 2000 was a stolen election, the score in the Red states is 62% no and 32% yes. Blue states - 50% and 44% yes.
- On Bush's job performance, Red states have 60% approval, Blue have 46%.
- On the social/economic values of Bill Clinton, Red states are 56% against and 32% for. Blue states are 47% against and 45% for.
The implication of this reading of the poll is dire for supporters of Dean, who claim that Dean's inability to campaign in the Red South is counterbalanced by the strengthening of liberal sentiment in states won by Gore. The case was made fairly strongly in Noam Schreiber's blog at The New Republic. Nothing in the Zogby poll convinces me that these states are getting more liberal. From all appearances, Dean will have to fight for his base states while Bush stays free to go on the offensive. And that, my friends, is a Democratic disaster in the making.
