Tuesday, January 27, 2004
Don't Call it a Comeback
The night was Kerry's of course. If his 12 point lead holds over the last 23% of precincts, he'll have achieved a remarkable reversal in New Hampshire. Edwards did not do as well as he might have, but this is thankfully not a must-win for him. Clark may gather some steam from this finish, but his campaign has yet to really catch fire.
And Dean. A 12 point loss makes it hard for this to be a comeback performance on his part, not when he was doing well in New Hampshire weeks ago. The effort to project optimism and postivity is certainly a good move, but he's not going to take momentum away from this. To recapture his earlier steam, he'd need to win a number of states next Tuesday. The problem is that the states coming up aren't ideal for him. South Carolina and Oklahoma are unlikely to be competitive for him now. Missouri is the prize of the bunch, but the Gephardt factor may be significant and Gephardt is unlikely to back Dean. Dean may do well with suburban Democrats in Arizona or Delaware, but then so may Kerry as the presumptive frontrunner. Actually, Kerry is supposedly doing well with older voters, and there's no shortage of those in Arizona. North Dakota . . . well I have no idea about North Dakota but I'll guess that it's not a land of liberal Dean-type Democrats.
There is hope for Dean, though. Michigan, Washington and Maine vote in short succession after next Tuesday. He's probably got a good chance in Maine, and the tech voters in Washington are probably enthused about him. Michigan will be the big prize and he will still have the money to compete there without facing anyone else's hometown advantage. Of course, if Kerry does splendidly on Tuesday, these other states may start to fall in line.
I have no access to any polling data for any of these states. All of this is extremely offhand. Dean remains competitive, but needs to start winning if he's going to go anywhere.
The night was Kerry's of course. If his 12 point lead holds over the last 23% of precincts, he'll have achieved a remarkable reversal in New Hampshire. Edwards did not do as well as he might have, but this is thankfully not a must-win for him. Clark may gather some steam from this finish, but his campaign has yet to really catch fire.
And Dean. A 12 point loss makes it hard for this to be a comeback performance on his part, not when he was doing well in New Hampshire weeks ago. The effort to project optimism and postivity is certainly a good move, but he's not going to take momentum away from this. To recapture his earlier steam, he'd need to win a number of states next Tuesday. The problem is that the states coming up aren't ideal for him. South Carolina and Oklahoma are unlikely to be competitive for him now. Missouri is the prize of the bunch, but the Gephardt factor may be significant and Gephardt is unlikely to back Dean. Dean may do well with suburban Democrats in Arizona or Delaware, but then so may Kerry as the presumptive frontrunner. Actually, Kerry is supposedly doing well with older voters, and there's no shortage of those in Arizona. North Dakota . . . well I have no idea about North Dakota but I'll guess that it's not a land of liberal Dean-type Democrats.
There is hope for Dean, though. Michigan, Washington and Maine vote in short succession after next Tuesday. He's probably got a good chance in Maine, and the tech voters in Washington are probably enthused about him. Michigan will be the big prize and he will still have the money to compete there without facing anyone else's hometown advantage. Of course, if Kerry does splendidly on Tuesday, these other states may start to fall in line.
I have no access to any polling data for any of these states. All of this is extremely offhand. Dean remains competitive, but needs to start winning if he's going to go anywhere.
