Thursday, September 04, 2003

 
One of the more interesting geopolitical developments of the past decade has been the expansion of ties between India and Israel. Official relations between the two states date back to 1992, though there were certainly tacit ties before that point. Reported in the past week are two linked events that will mark the continued consolidation of the relationship: Ariel Sharon's visit to India and impending sale of $1 billion worth of airborne early warning radar systems to India by Israel.

Reuters notes that this will further skew the balance of power in the Indian subcontinent:

"This is not a unique capability but it is one that few nations possess and gives a huge war-fighting advantage to any air force that has it," said Robert Hewson, editor of Jane's Air Launched Weapons.

"The Phalcon would increase India's airpower advantage over an opponent such as Pakistan...by a very considerable margin."


Also noted in the article is an interesting counter-move by Pakistan, which is frustrated by its inability to block Indo-Israeli weapons deals: President Musharraf is debating recognizing Israel. On the surface, this may not be enough to impede the natural confluence of interests between India and Israel, it may offer a very tempting possibility to Israel of beginning to normalize its ties with the non-Arab Islamic states. How far these ties would go is an open question, but it is in Israel's interest to attempt to peel states away from rejectionism.

Within Pakistan, normalizing relations with Israel would enrage the Islamist opposition, and perhaps force Musharraf toward further confrontation with them. While searching on Google News for articles about this, I encountered a rather astonishing opinion piece at Paknews.com which was remarkable, not for strong support of recognition but for critically evaluating Pakistan's relations with Arab states. Notable is the following excerpt:

* Had any Arab Muslim country assisted virtually when the poor Pakistan was yet in the acute trauma of partition - and was get entangled in countless
issues of assortment in 1947/48, by the belligerent [India] - while this poor Pakistan was yet in the womb that it undertook every action in favor of the Turk Muslims, Palestinian Muslims and other Arab Muslims?

* Has any Arab Muslim country ever opened her mouth a little against the 56-years long Hindu atrocities on poor Kashmiris?

* Had any Muslim Arab country extended any assistance to Pakistan in the all out wars fought against [India], in 1965, 1971 - while numerous non Muslim countries were assisting [India] all roundly?


This is interesting, and an ironic parallel to one of the causes of India's own decision to seek closer ties with Israel: the perception among Indian elites that shunning Israel had not won any reciprocal support from Arab countries. There are a number of comments below, which I read - expecting all to be critical of the author. To my amazement, a significant number backed recognition, alongside the posts you would expect extolling eternal hatred toward Israel or Jews in general. One sample, by 'Pakistani' is below:

Pakistan has no problems with Israel and Israel has no problems with Pakistan. We should extent a hand of friendship to Israel and open up trade with Israel. It will benefit Pakistan and Israel. There is not reason not to recognize Israel! Israel has never done nothing to Pakistan or never even threatened Pakistan.


It will be interesting to see how this story develops. Musharraf just might have more support for this than I previously thought. And Israel may have to face real tradeoffs in its relations with the subcontinent.


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